- The "Wall of Worry": Chronert notes that rising geopolitical tension and spiking oil prices (which surged over 6% to roughly $76/barrel) add to existing investor concerns regarding inflation and interest rates.
- AI vs. Conflict: Interestingly, Chronert argues that AI-induced inflation or deflation remains a more critical long-term driver for share prices than the military conflict itself.
- Conflict Duration Matters: History suggests that for markets, the duration of military engagement and the expectations surrounding it are more impactful than the initial outbreak.
- Bullish Resilience: Despite the "wall of worry," Chronert recently reconfirmed an above-consensus $320 EPS target for the S&P 500 in 2026, suggesting that strong earnings and appealing valuations for the "Elite Eight" tech stocks provide a buffer.
| Index | Closing Value | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,881.62 | +0.04% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 22,748.86 | +0.36% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Avg | 48,904.78 | -0.15% |
| Asset Name | Asset Price | Price Delta | Percent Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
Dow Jones Industrial Average | 48,904.78 | 0 | |
S&P 500 | 6,881.62 | 0 | |
Nasdaq Composite | 22,748.86 | 80.65 |
- Gainers: Energy and Defense stocks rose as traders priced in supply disruptions and increased military spending. Notable movers included Nvidia (+2.99%) and Chevron (+1.52%).
- Losers: Consumer-facing and interest-rate-sensitive stocks, such as Home Depot (-2.60%) and Procter & Gamble (-2.21%), lagged as the "wall of worry" regarding inflation persisted.
- Specific defense or energy stocks that analysts are highlighting right now.
- Updated Fed rate cut expectations following the recent oil price jump.
- More details on the "Elite Eight" valuations mentioned by Citi.
Iran conflict just adds to wall of worry for U.S. stocks, says Citi strategist
Wall of Worry for US Stocks
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News in Brief
Bloomberg:
- World’s top container carriers revise sailings to avoid Mideast.
- Millions of migrant workers in gulf at risk as war rages on.
- Middle East conflict imposes another stress test on Global Resilience.
MarketWatch:
- Iran conflicts just adds to wall of worry for US stocks, says Citi strategist.
- Apple launches new iPhone and iPad Air as it gears up for a major AI push.
yahoo! finance:
- Trump’s Iran war adds potential shock for US economy, voters.
- US stocks tumble after Iran attacks jolt markets.
- Oil soars as Mideast strikes stall Hormuz tanker traffic.
Iran conflict sparks talk of a return to $100-a-barrel oil and a Strait of Hormuz standstill.
Global Indexes
S&P 500
After dipping way below the S&P 500 climbed back to close just below its 50 DMA resistance.
DAX
The DAX reacted with a breakaway gap to close with a high wave candle in reaction to the Iran conflict.
HANG SENG
The HANG SENG continued its negative trend with a 2.1% correction.
NYSE & NASDAQ Stocks
Estee Lauder Companies
EL made largest correction for the day. Notice where Frontrunner broke down.
NVIDIA Corporation
After touching its 200 DMA support NVDA made an engulfing bull candle to close positive for the day.
JSE Stocks
JSE All Shares
The JSE All Shares reaction to the conflict was a negative piercing candle.
Anglo American PLC
After touching top resistance 3 times AGL bounced down.
Algomodel Strategies, Education & Features
Click on Education or go to the home page to view education posts.
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