Forward Guidance > Data Dependency = The Fed's New Communications Mantra

 



The Fed is still the dominant influence on global monetary policy, but it now finds itself operating in a more multi-polar world.

U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Jerome H. Powell @ The 2016 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum

New York, New York

February 26, 2016

Discussion Of The Paper

"Language After Liftoff: Fed Communication Away From The Zero Lower Bound"

This paper reviews Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) communications from the time the Committee began issuing regular postmeeting statements in 1999 to the present.
The authors provide an extended and insightful discussion of the theory and practice of providing forward guidance about monetary policy. They offer one central lesson: Data-based forward guidance is mostly good, while time-based forward guidance is mostly bad.
The authors show that data-based guidance has desirable characteristics and can make monetary policy more effective . . . [image to the upper left from this paper]
The pressure is on to improve Fed communications given what the paper called the "current political environment in which the Federal Reserve is continually under attack."
Link http://www.mondovisione.com/media-and-resources/news/us-federal-reserve-governor-jerome-h-powell-at-the-2016-us-monetary-policy-f/

The authors were JPMorgan's Michael Feroli, Morgan Stanley's David Greenlaw, Deutsche Bank's Peter Hooper, Frederic Mishkin of Columbia University and Amir Sufi of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, which hosted the conference attended by Fed governors Lael Brainard, Jerome Powell and others from the central bank.

Another economic slump, another communications test for Fed

NEW YORK | By Jonathan Spicer

Markets |

Fri Feb 26, 2016 10:27am EST

In this report from Reuters today a group of economists have this to say:

Time-based forward guidance should only be used in extremely unusual circumstances," five Wall Street and university economists concluded in the high-profile paper. "We believe that the current situation does not justify (it) . . .

The recommendations come as the U.S. economic recovery faces another threat from overseas.

 

The Federal Reserve, facing the delicate task of explaining how it will forge ahead with rate hikes in a stormy world economy, should avoid slipping back into the trap of tying its actions to calendar dates, top U.S. economists warned in a paper on Friday.

The research paper, presented to a roomful of Fed policymakers in New York, criticized their over-reliance on time frames in recent years when explaining what would trigger a policy tightening. Now that interest rates are up a notch, the economists argued the Fed should stress that further moves are based on very hard-to-predict economic data, and policymakers should be more unassuming in speeches and published forecasts.
Yet remnants of time-based forward guidance are still found in Fed statements, speeches and, most explicitly, in charts published every three months showing individual policymakers' expected path of rate hikes over the next few years.

"What's worrying me is that ... it looks like a commitment, it looks like a freight train," St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Wednesday of the so-called "dots" charts. He wants to revamp them to highlight uncertainty in the forecasts.
The charts published in December suggested the Fed would hike rates four more times in 2016.

Organization of the Federal Reserve

The 12 regional
 

Trump Tingles Another Political Nerve > Hitting A Hard Ball To The Owners of The Chicago Cubs

Donald Trump, despite disclaimers, is no rookie when it comes to playing politics - he's a hard-hitter > knockin' out a fly ball about "secret spending"
The game-on is on in real time Twitter: Two Titans Go at it BIG TIME
I hear the Rickets family, who own the Chicago Cubs, are secretly spending $'s against me. They better be careful, they have a lot to hide!
No boundaries and no fear

Gateway Aviation Day 2016 - Presented by Eastmark

Readers of this blog might also be interested in taking a look at an article by East Valley Tribune reporter Shelley Ridenour published on Mon 22 Feb 2016:
Planes, trains and automobiles all part of Falcon Field open house
About 10,000 people are expected to attend the upcoming open house at Falcon Field Airport.
War birds are among the many types of aircraft which will be displayed 
The City of Mesa plans the event from 9 a.m. to 2 p.m. Saturday, March 26. Most activities take place in Falcon Field Park and on the aircraft ramp, airport spokeswoman Dee Anne Thomas said. The park is at 4636 E. Fighter Aces Drive.
There’s no admission charge, but people are asked to bring non-perishable food to donate to the United Food Bank.
It’ll be a busy day, Thomas said, with all sorts of things on tap.
http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/local/mesa/article_69a716e0-d5c7-11e5-a6ea-d342a8c9fa3f.html                                                                                                                                     
 

Re/Creative Place Making Event Here in April in The New Urban DTMesa

Creative Placemaking Event:

Arts Economy and Artists as Entrepreneurs

4:00 PM to 6:00 pm  Wed/06 April 2016

Location: 

Mesa Arts Center

One East Main Street

Mesa  Arizona  85201

United States

Artists and Creative Place Making play an important role in the revitalization of a community.

New investments into an area can positively impact the standard of living of all residents.

Hear how supporting artists through cross sector approaches such as housing, asset building and comprehensive community development work toward a regenerating community.

Guest speakers include representatives from 

• Kresge Foundation
• Artspace
• LISC National
• Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

To register >> go to this link >>

 https://www.eventbrite.com/e/arts-economy-and-artists-as-entrepreneurs-registration-21022877994

This event is sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mesa Arts Center and LISC Phoenix. There is no cost to attend, but advanced registration is required. To learn more about the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco’s community development work in Arizona, contact Joselyn Cousins or visit frbsf.org/community-development/.

Event Contact
Joselyn Cousins, Regional Manager
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
415 974-3281

Have questions about Arts Economy and Artists as Entrepreneurs?

Contact Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco                

                                                      

 

"Creative placemaking?

What is it that you do?"

July 23, 2015

By: Jamie Bennett, Executive Director

. . . it was just five years ago that Ann Markusen and Anne Gadwa (Nicodemus) wrote Creative Placemaking, the white paper that first brought the phrase to American communities via The Mayors’ Institute on City Design.

Shortly thereafter, inspired by both that publication and the National Endowment for the Arts’ subsequent Our Town grantmaking, ArtPlace America was born as a coalition of foundations, federal agencies, and banks came together, united in the belief that artists and arts organizations could literally shape the social, physical, and economic characters of their communities.
Add the image to the right for all the sectors that impact Creative Place Making: civic/social/faith, commercial, government, nonprofits + philanthropies.
All five can intersect with the categories in the left-hand first column - take a look.

The foundation presidents selected Carol Coletta as ArtPlace’s founding director, and Carol set off to talk with anyone who would listen about how the arts could improve the quality of a place through social offerings and aesthetics that positively impacted that place’s people, activities, and values.
Over three years, Carol took this brand new phrase and made it a real enough thing that The Kresge Foundation embraced creative placemaking as a framework for its grantmaking, as did Connecticut’s Department of Economic and Community Development. Universities created classes  on the subject, and ArtPlace received some 4,000 applications for creative placemaking projects proposed by communities of all sizes across the United States.
When Carol got the opportunity to lead community and national initiatives for the Knight Foundation, ArtPlace’s leadership had  a chance to look back over its three years of grantmaking to see what themes and issues were emerging and how the practice was evolving.

They went through a strategic planning process that ultimately reframed ArtPlace as a ten-year fund, dedicated to repositioning art and culture as a core sector of community planning and development by investing in, researching, and connecting those who lead and execute creative placemaking projects.

 

http://www.artplaceamerica.org/blog/creative-placemaking-what-it-you-do

 

Official Notice Re: SouthWest Maker Fest 2016

First, a disclaimer from your MesaZona blogger who is not de-facto "anti-establishment".
Inbound marketing and social media are now creating competition [and that's a good thing] to official established channels with claims that the positive energies and results are performed "under their auspices" when it's THE BIG WE active in all-around multi-media networks creating interest by getting a buzz on in different circles. 
In the interest of fair play and in good faith, here we go again!    
Official Notice from City of Mesa Arts & Culture "Director" with a deadline sent via email 18 hours ago
Southwest Maker Fest Coming March 12th - Exhibit Deadline February 27^{th [too much fun with tremendous energy?]}

Some people might like better to go to their Facebook page to see and get in tune with energies of this group [link below after excerpts from official notice]
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE—For exhibitors looking to join the regional maker community as part of the third annual Southwest Maker Fest (SWMF) on March 12^th in downtown Mesa, the deadline to apply is fast approaching.  Applications for exhibiting or sharing a program at the third annual Southwest Maker Fest are due by February 27^th. Interested makers of all kinds—from inventors to artists, from DIY experts to engineers to designers—can fill out the easy and free application at SouthwestMakerFest.com.
. . . The all-volunteer organization has engendered tremendous energy and excitement about building an inclusive and highly creative event in the Valley of the Sun. Last year’s event welcomed 5,000 visitors, up about 10% from Year One. While last year’s SWMF also enjoyed tremendous growth in the number of exhibitors, the emphasis in Year Three has been on the quality of experiences. To achieve this, festival organizers are seeking to focus the heart of the festival on engaging activities, and are actively recruiting exhibitors who can offer demonstrations and hands-on learning, and presenters willing to share exciting stories, artistry, inventions or extraordinary journeys. There will still be areas of the festival for makers who simply want to share and sell their creations (for a small fee), but the central areas, stage and workshop locations will all be dedicated to offering a diversity of active learning experiences, with no cost for exhibitors meeting that criterion. , ,

The “maker” movement is booming in the U.S., with very large events held annually in New York, the Bay Area, and numerous other major metropolitan areas. Southwest Maker Fest celebrates makers, innovation and creativity, and builds upon the growing Do-It-Yourself movement and a thirst for active experiences. Organizers hope SWMF will ultimately become a major regional event that builds on our state’s strength as a fertile location for new ideas and entrepreneurial spirit.

 . . . the press release ends with these statements: The event is being held under the auspices of Ultimate Imagination Inc., the 501(c)3 non-profit arm of the Downtown Mesa Association.  Event sponsors include Intel, Microchip, University of Advancing Technology, i.d.e.a. Museum, Mesa Arts Center and Downtown Mesa Association.

 

https://www.facebook.com/southwestmakerfest/photos/a.653949291322758.1073741828.653945084656512/1039994432718240/?type=3

    

A Re-Release PLAY ME - I'M YOURS

International Play Me, I’m Yours project will kick off in Mesa on February 27

Young Pianist and Composer Emily Bear Commissioned for Street Pianos Mesa Unveiling

... AND THERE WILL BE A SYMPHONY WITH 23 OTHER PLAYERS HITTING THE IVORIES ON THE STREETS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

For Immediate Release: February 2, 2016

 

Mesa, AZ – Play Me, I’m Yours, an international touring artwork devised by British artist Luke Jerram, will be presented by Mesa Arts Center and the Mesa Arts Center Foundation March 1 – April 9, 2016, with celebratory events on Feb. 26 and 27. This project has been produced in 50 cities worldwide, but never before in Arizona. For six weeks, 24 playable donated pianos, transformed into works for art by teams of artists paired with community groups, will live in public spaces in and around downtown Mesa for residents and visitors to play and enjoy. 

 

World-renowned musical talent Emily Bear, age 14, has been commissioned to arrange an original piece of music for 25 pianos to celebrate the project. Titled "The Bravest Journey," the piece was composed by Emily when she was 13 years old in honor of war veterans, and debuted in 2015 with the Rockford Symphony Orchestra. The arrangement will have its world premiere at the Mesa Arts Center Foundation’s Annual Gala event on Friday, February 26, when the Mesa pianos are revealed. Emily, who has performed at Carnegie Hall, the White House and Lincoln Center, to name a few, will perform along with 24 musicians playing the transformed pianos.

 

Tickets for the fundraiser event include an appetizer buffet, hosted bar, dessert selection, additional entertainment and more, and are $150 available now through the Mesa Arts Center Box Office, at mesaartscenter.com or by calling 480-644-6500. Funds raised from the Gala event ensure that students Valleywide have access to arts experiences through the Engagement programs of Mesa Arts Center.

 

The piece will be performed one more time by Emily and musicians at the public kickoff of Street Pianos Mesa on Saturday, February 2, from 2-5 p.m. The free event will celebrate the project and display the 24 pianos before they are dispersed into the community where they will be installed for the duration of the project.

 

When the installation launches on March 1, the pianos will be located in Downtown Mesa along Main Street, near Mesa museums and libraries, on Mesa Arts Center’s campus and at numerous other accessible and open-to-the-public locations, including several satellite locations throughout the city. The free exhibition of pianos will invite and encourage public engagement through art, performance and music 24/7.

 

“This project celebrates the creative spirit of our community, inviting passersby to engage with, perform with, and observe the pianos in an unlikely environment – the streets of our city. We are thrilled to bring this wildly creative project to Mesa, and to be able to involve so many different people in making it happen,” said Cindy Ornstein, Arts and Culture Director, City of Mesa.

 

Groups involved in transforming a piano for the project include several Mesa public schools, Boys and Girls Club of the East Valley – Mesa Arts Academy, Community Asset and Resource Enterprise (CARE) Partnership, The Chinese Community, Eastmark, East Valley Institute of Technology, Mesa Association of Hispanic Citizens, A New Leaf, Mesa Contemporary Arts Museum Docents, Mesa Urban Garden, New School for the Arts, Oakwood Creative Care, Phonetic Spit, Southwest Maker Fest, Creative Catalysts and First United Church of Mesa.

 

Touring internationally since 2008, the Play Me, I’m Yours project has reached over ten million people worldwide with over 1,500 pianos. The Street Pianos Mesa is presented by  www.streetpianosmesa.com   

BIG WOW! Big Meet-Up in The New Urban DTMesa This Weekend > Cycling + Arts/Entertainment

Outdoor Sports + Arts/Entertainment + Culture - Big Bang For The Bucks! [did somebody say What Happened to H.E.A.T. ???] We got that too. Mild and warm weather forecast ahead for the weekend . . .

Both the streets and the sounds-in-the-air will come alive this weekend - on hundreds of two-wheeled cycles racing around the perimeters of the cities for the Phoenix Mesa Marathon to the finish line here in The New Urban DTMesa and on the ivory keyboards  of 24 super art-charged pianos now in-place at the Mesa Arts Center.
All outdoor events for the public.
Can you get all excited about that, dear readers?
If you're a baseball fan, take in "A Day at The Diamond too! Do it all!