Friday, October 06, 2017

Tracking Trump-O-Nomics in 7 Charts

President Donald Trump has set many specific and general goals for his administration's management of the economy, like raising growth to 3 percent and eliminating the country’s trade deficit. The charts below show how key indicators evolved during former President Obama’s second term, and how they are faring since Trump took office in January.
GDP growth
Source: Reuters
“We’re saying 3 (percent) ... There’s no reason we shouldn’t be able to get at some point into the future to 5 and above.”
Trump has pledged to deliver 3 percent annual growth in gross domestic product. The figures jump around a lot quarter to quarter. But absent a change in population demographics or productivity, many economists feel current annual trend growth in the U.S. is around 2 percent, which is roughly what it averaged through Obama’s last four years.
201220132014201520162017-20246%TRUMP TAKES OFFICE

Consumer Price Index
The U.S. has enjoyed tame inflation since the 1990s. Trump has not focused on the issue, but some economists worry that his combination of proposals, if enacted, could lead to faster rising prices. High inflation, particularly without rising wages, is often difficult for politicians blamed for the erosion in household purchasing power.
201220132014201520162017-101234%TRUMP TAKES OFFICE

NONFARM PAYROLLS AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Trump has called the unemployment rate “one of the statistics that to me is just ridiculous,” because it does not account for people who are not looking for jobs. In the vast majority of cases, those people are retired, or doing something else like caring for family or studying in school. The unemployment rate remains a headline barometer of the labor market. It was healthy when Trump took over, as was monthly job growth.
Change in nonfarm payrolls
2012201320142015201620170100200300400 thousandTRUMP TAKES OFFICE
Unemployment rate
20132014201520162017456789%TRUMP TAKES OFFICE

TRADE DEFICIT
“The jobs and wealth have been stripped from our country. Year after year, decade after decade, trade deficit upon trade deficit.”
Trump and some members of his team see the trade deficit as inherently bad. Most economists disagree, but the administration has said the aim of its trade policy will be to lower or eliminate deficits with the U.S.’s trading partners.
20132014201520162017-60-50-40-30-20-10$0 billionTRUMP TAKES OFFICE

CHANGE IN MANUFACTURING JOBS
“We’ve lost close to 70,000 factories…70,000…You know, you look at a map of the United States – how many factories can you lose?”
Trump has equated American renewal with a rebound in manufacturing, and put trade policy at the center of efforts to make that happen. There is dispute among economists about the potential for manufacturing job growth, however. Even if manufacturing output grows, it is likely to involve fewer workers due to automation and better management.
20132014201520162017-40-2002040,000TRUMP TAKES OFFICE

Prime Age Participation Rate
“We must honestly acknowledge the circumstances we inherited ... More than one in five people in their prime worker years are not working.”
When Trump took office about 81.5 percent of the country’s 25 to 54 year olds were in the labor force — either employed or looking for work. The figure has been rising, but is short of its late 90s high of 84.6 percent. This statistic, perhaps more than any other, speaks to Trump’s sense of what is wrong with the economy and how his success at fixing it can be assessed.
2013201420152016201780.080.581.081.582.0%TRUMP TAKES OFFICE
Source: Thomson Reuters
By Christine Chan and Howard Schneider | REUTERS GRAPHICS

COVERT OPS GONE WILD: American Made - Official Trailer [HD]



Published on Jun 5, 2017
Views: 7,968,370
Guns. Drugs. Money laundering. Based on an unbelievable true story, watch the #AmericanMade trailer, in theaters September 29.

Song: “The Devil You Know” by X Ambassadors:
http://smarturl.it/TheDevilYouKnow
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In Universal Pictures’ American Made, Tom Cruise reunites with his Edge of Tomorrow director, Doug Liman (The Bourne Identity, Mr. and Mrs. Smith), in this international escapade based on the outrageous (and real) exploits of a hustler and pilot unexpectedly recruited by the CIA to run one of the biggest covert operations in U.S. history.

Based on a true story, American Made co-stars Domhnall Gleeson, Sarah Wright, E. Roger Mitchell, Jesse Plemons, Lola Kirke, Alejandro Edda, Benito Martinez, Caleb Landry Jones and Jayma Mays.

The film is produced by Imagine Entertainment’s Academy Award®-winning producer Brian Grazer (A Beautiful Mind), Cross Creek Pictures’ Brian Oliver (Black Swan) and Tyler Thompson (Everest), Quadrant Pictures’ Doug Davison (The Departed), and Kim Roth (Inside Man). Gary Spinelli wrote the screenplay.

WARNING ISSUED > Nate Plows Into Warm Waters Moving at 21 MPH


Published on Oct 6, 2017
Views: 2,631
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Sun-Earthquake Model Matches M8.1 in Mexico


Published on Oct 5, 2017
Views: 23,231

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES Aug 2017

Image result for bureau of economic analysis
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EDT, Thursday, October 5, 2017
NEWS
U.S. Department of Commerce * Washington, DC 20230
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has issued the following news release today:
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $42.4 billion in August, down $1.2 billion from $43.6 billion in July, revised. August exports were $195.3 billion, $0.8 billion more than July exports. August imports were $237.7 billion, $0.4 billion less than July imports. 
The full text of the release on BEA's Web site can be found at www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/tradnewsrelease.htm 
___________________________________________________________________________
 
Or you might want to take a look at
Story image for U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES August 2017 from ABA Banking Journal (blog)

International Trade Balance Narrowed in August

ABA Banking Journal (blog)-Oct 5, 2017
October 5, 2017. The U.S. international trade deficit narrowed in August, falling 2.7% to $42.4 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of ... Exports of goods increased just over $0.5 billion to $129.2 billion in August. ... Imports of services remained virtually unchanged at $44.1 billion in August.
__________________________________________________________________________
Back to the release :
The August decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $0.9 billion to $64.4 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.3 billion to $22.0 billion.
Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $29.1 billion, or 8.8 percent, from the same period in 2016.
Exports increased $84.9 billion or 5.8 percent.
Imports increased $114.0 billion or 6.4 percent.
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Goods and Services Three-Month Moving Averages (Exhibit 2)
The average goods and services deficit decreased $1.3 billion to $43.2 billion for the three months ending in August.
     * Average exports of goods and services increased $1.0 billion to $194.9 billion in August.
     * Average imports of goods and services decreased $0.3 billion to $238.1 billion in August.
Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $1.1 billion from the three months ending in August 2016.
     * Average exports of goods and services increased $9.4 billion from August 2016.
     * Average imports of goods and services increased $10.5 billion from August 2016.
Exports (Exhibits 3, 6, and 7)
Exports of goods increased $0.6 billion to $129.2 billion in August.
Exports of goods on a Census basis increased $0.1 billion.
         * Consumer goods increased $1.0 billion. o
Pharmaceutical preparations increased $0.6 billion.
         * Capital goods increased $0.4 billion. o
Telecommunications equipment increased $0.4 billion.
         * Industrial supplies and materials decreased $1.0 billion. o Fuel oil decreased $0.7 billion. * Foods, feeds, and beverages decreased $0.4 billion. Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.5 billion. Exports of services increased $0.2 billion to $66.1 billion in August.
         * Travel (for all purposes including education), other business services (which includes research and development services; professional and management services; and technical, trade-related, and other services), and financial services each increased $0.1 billion.
         * Transport, which includes freight and port services and passenger fares, decreased $0.2 billion. Imports (Exhibits 4, 6, and 8)
Imports of goods decreased $0.3 billion to $193.6 billion in August.
Imports of goods on a Census basis decreased $0.4 billion.
         * Industrial supplies and materials decreased $0.5 billion. o
Finished metal shapes decreased $0.2 billion. o
Copper decreased $0.2 billion.
         * Capital goods decreased $0.5 billion. o
Computer accessories decreased $0.3 billion. o
Civilian aircraft decreased $0.2 billion.
         * Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines increased $0.7 billion. o
Passenger cars increased $0.5 billion.
    Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.1 billion.

Imports of services decreased $0.1 billion to $44.1 billion in August. * Transport decreased $0.2 billion. * Travel (for all purposes including education) increased $0.1 billion. Real Goods in 2009 Dollars – Census Basis (Exhibit 11) The real goods deficit decreased less than $0.1 billion to $61.8 billion in August. * Real exports of goods decreased $1.1 billion to $125.2 billion. * Real imports of goods decreased $1.1 billion to $187.0 billion. Revisions Revisions to July exports * Exports of goods were revised up less than $0.1 billion. * Exports of services were revised up $0.1 billion. Revisions to July imports * Imports of goods were revised down less than $0.1 billion. * Imports of services were revised up less than $0.1 billion. Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (Exhibit 19) The August figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($2.7), Hong Kong ($2.5), Singapore ($0.8), United Kingdom ($0.6), and Brazil ($0.4). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($29.7), European Union ($10.9), Japan ($6.3), Mexico ($5.8), Germany ($4.8), Italy ($2.5), South Korea ($2.1), India ($1.6), Taiwan ($1.5), France ($0.8), OPEC ($0.8), Canada ($0.4), and Saudi Arabia ($0.1). * The deficit with China decreased $2.1 billion to $29.7 billion in August. Exports increased $0.8 billion to $11.6 billion and imports decreased $1.2 billion to $41.3 billion. * The deficit with the European Union decreased $1.2 billion to $10.9 billion in August. Exports increased $1.4 billion to $24.2 billion and imports increased $0.2 billion to $35.1 billion. NOTICE Effects of 2017 Atlantic Hurricanes on U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services The effects of the recent hurricanes will be embedded in source data that the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the U.S. Census Bureau use to produce trade in goods and services statistics. However, these effects generally cannot be isolated, and, thus, BEA and the Census Bureau cannot separately quantify the impacts of the hurricanes. Some of the initial effects of Hurricane Harvey, which made landfall in southeastern Texas on August 25, 2017, are likely reflected in the source data underlying this “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services: August 2017” report. The impacts of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria will likely be reflected in subsequent reports until normal trade activities resume in affected areas. Goods Below is information on the collection of statistics on trade in goods by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and possible scenarios for shipments directly impacted by the hurricanes, along with information regarding statistical procedures used to produce trade statistics. * Transactions that are cleared through a customs port are included in the trade statistics per normal procedures. However, there may be instances in which power outages or inaccessibility to buildings delay reporting by affected filers. * During port closures, export and import shipments may be diverted, amended, or canceled. Diverted import shipments may enter through another U.S. port or be transshipped through Mexico. * The Census Bureau processes any corrections as usual per Census Bureau revision policy. * Exports to and imports from a foreign country that leave or enter the U.S. customs territory in the U.S. Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico are included in U.S. international trade statistics.
     For more information, see the “U.S. Trade with Puerto Rico and U.S. Possessions” section of the Guide to Foreign Trade Statistics. For further CBP guidance, please visit CBP’s Cargo Systems Messaging Service and search “hurricane.” Census Bureau reports on trade through the Gulf Coast ports and on trade through Southeast ports are available at www.census.gov/foreign-trade/specialreports/gulfcoastports.pdf and www.census.gov/foreign-trade/specialreports/southeastports.pdf. Additional U.S. port data are available on USA Trade Online and on the International Trade API. If you have questions, please contact the Census Bureau, Economic Indicators Division, on (800) 549-0595, option 4, or at eid.international.trade.data@census.gov. Services While BEA cannot separately quantify the impacts of the hurricanes on any specific service category, there are several possible impacts of the hurricanes on U.S. trade in services. For example, transport services may be affected by port closures and by diverted shipments. Travel expenditures and other services trade may be affected to the extent that service activities are interrupted. The effects of the hurricanes on insurance services, meanwhile, are likely to be small because BEA uses normal losses, rather than actual losses, to measure insurance services. For more information, see “How are property and casualty insurance services measured in GDP?” The August trade in services statistics in this release are based on limited source data. More complete source data will be incorporated following the schedule outlined in “Revision Procedure (Goods on a BOP Basis and Services)” on page A-6 of this release. If you have questions, please contact BEA, Balance of Payments Division, at InternationalAccounts@bea.gov. NOTES: * All statistics referenced are seasonally adjusted; statistics are on a balance of payments basis unless otherwise specified. Additional statistics, including not seasonally adjusted statistics and details for goods on a Census basis, are available in Exhibits 1-20b of this release. For information on data sources, definitions, revision procedures, and scheduled release dates through December 2017, see the information section on page A-1 of this release. The next release is November 3, 2017. * For definitions of goods on a balance of payments basis, goods on a Census basis, and net balance of payments adjustments, see the information section on page A-1 of this release.

BEA News: Gross Domestic Product by State and Personal Income by State, 3rd Quarter 2025

  BEA News: Gross Domestic Product by State and Personal Income by S...