Monday, September 12, 2022

CONSEQUENCES OF CONFLICTS: Expect A New Spike in Gas Prices...The US is Profiting from the Recession in Europe

That's right - Pre-emptive warnings ahead of time from U.S. Secretary of The Treasury Janet Yellen

Yellen: Rising gas prices are a 'risk' this winter - CNN Video

www.cnn.com › politics › 2022/09/11d

Duration: 1:30
Posted: 15 hours ago

Oil prices could spike in winter, Yellen says - Reuters

www.reuters.com › business › energy › u...

16 hours ago · The increase could come because the EU "will cease for the most part buying Russian oil" and impose a ban on services that allow Russia to ...

200 DAYS OF CONFLICT IN THE UKRAINE... It is, in the words of writer Caitlin Johnstone, “the most aggressively trolled war of all time.”

There you have it

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Researchers at the University of Adelaide have published a landmark paper on the activities of bot accounts on Twitter related to the conflict in Ukraine. These Australian findings are truly staggering – of 5.2 million tweets on the social media network from February 23 to March 8, between 60 to 80% were shared by fake accounts. What’s more, 90% of those posts were pro-Ukraine.

In particular, these accounts pushed the hashtags #IStandWithUkraine, #IStandWithZelenskyy, and #ISupportUkraine, and myths like the ‘Ghost of Kiev’, a fictional Ukrainian fighter pilot who is farcically alleged to have taken down 40 Russian jets within hours of the military operation commencing.

Significant spikes in activity were recorded at key points in the initial stages of the fighting, such as Russia’s capture of Kherson on March 2, and the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant on March 4.

The accounts identified were overwhelmingly English language, leading the researchers to conclude these fake users sought to “drive more disruption in English-speaking countries” and “influence a variety of user groups.” Despite the significant focus on English, Ukrainian bots also employed the Russian language to “cause more disruption” in the country...

“The U.S. is really preparing for a long war. … It’s actually preparing for endless war in Ukraine,” said Stephen Semler, co-founder of the Security Policy Reform Institute, a grassroots-funded U.S. foreign policy think tank that has been tracking the assistance. “They’re saying, ‘We’re only doing this long-term approach because Putin is the one insisting on doing so.’ And that could be right — but at the same time, it’s not like the U.S. is expressing much confidence in its diplomatic skills to end the conflict, rather than just trying to outlast Putin.”

A spokesperson for the State Department wrote in an email to The Intercept that the U.S. is the largest provider of security assistance to Ukraine and has “quickly provided an historic levels [sic] of weapons and equipment that Ukraine’s forces have been using effectively to defend their democracy against Russia’s unprovoked war...

”

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"Kiev and Washington have “constantly” discussed ways to blunt the Russian advance, an official told the newspaper

Ukraine had stepped up intelligence-sharing with the US in preparation for its counteroffensive against the Russian forces in the Kharkov Region, The New York Times reported on Saturday.

Despite Washington providing information on Russian command posts, ammunition depots and other targets to Kiev, Ukrainian officials had been reluctant earlier in the conflict to reveal operational plans to their US counterparts, over concerns that this “could highlight weaknesses and discourage continued American support,” the newspaper claimed.

But it all changed during the summer as Kiev decided that sharing plans for its counteroffensive would, contrary to previous concerns, prompt Washington to provide Ukraine with even more assistance, unnamed senior US officials told the NYT.

This shift allowed the US to offer “better and more relevant information about Russian weaknesses,” the sources reported.

They declined to expand on how much information has been shared between the sides or on how deep the Americans have been involved in the planning of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the newspaper said.

However, one official claimed that the US had “constantly” discussed with Ukraine ways that it could blunt the Russian advance in the east of the country...

..."

On Saturday, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced the withdrawal of its troops from the city of Izyum and some other settlements in the region, saying that these are being regrouped in order “to build up efforts in the Donetsk direction.” During the operation, it added, the military had performed what it called a “number of distracting and demonstration activities imitating the real action of troops.”

Ukrainian president Vladimir Zelensky celebrated the Russian retreat as a victory, but the NYT pointed out that “it is not yet clear how much broad strategic importance those gains [by Kiev] will have.

Moscow has many times warned Washington against providing weapons and sharing intelligence data with Ukraine, saying that the US risked becoming a party to the conflict through such actions..."

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Since Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February, the U.S. government has pumped more money and weapons into supporting the Ukrainian military than it sent in 2020 to Afghanistan, Israel, and Egypt combined — surpassing in a matter of months three of the largest recipients of U.S. military aid in history.

Keeping track of the numbers is challenging. Since the war started, U.S. officials have announced a flurry of initiatives aimed at supporting Ukrainian defense efforts while keeping short of a more direct involvement in the conflict. On Thursday, on a surprise visit to Kyiv, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced a new $675 million package of U.S. military equipment as well as a $2.2 billion “long-term” investment to bolster the security of Ukraine and 17 of its neighbor countries. Weeks earlier, President Joe Biden unveiled a $3 billion aid package, the largest yet, symbolically choosing Ukraine’s Independence Day for the announcement. The administration noted on that occasion that the total military assistance committed to Ukraine this year had reached $12.9 billion, more than $15.5 billion since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea. And this month, Biden also asked Congress to authorize an additional $13.7 billion for Ukraine, including money for equipment and intelligence.

Because the assistance is drawn from a variety of sources — and because it’s not always easy to distinguish between aid that’s been authorized, pledged, or delivered — some analysts estimate the true figure of the U.S. commitment to Ukraine is much higher: up to $40 billion in security assistance, or $110 million a day over the last year. This assistance is believed to be playing an important role in the advances Ukraine is making in an ongoing offensive to retake territory seized by Russia earlier this year; the cities of Kupiansk and Izium are reported to have just been liberated. What is clear is that the volume and speed of the assistance headed to Ukraine is unprecedented, and that legislators and observers are struggling to keep up.

Sunday, September 11, 2022

There are signs...

“The Federal Reserve miscalculated the lag times inherent in monetary policy changes, leading the central bank to raise interest rates during the early stages of a recession,” the authors continue. “While it is important for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy and manage inflation, it is also important to adjust policy rates at an appropriate pace.”

The warning seems prudent in light of the fact that the U.S. gross domestic product just contracted for a second consecutive quarter — the traditional definition of a recession...

Anxiety among financial elites about the tight labor market — i.e., workers having some relative leverage — has scarcely been concealed. Also on Thursday, Larry Summers, a top economist in both the Obama and Clinton administrations, said that tackling inflation “will likely require a significant recession.” In recent months, Summers has also called for a 10 percent unemployment rate — a figure that would mean putting millions of Americans out of work.

In a corporate earnings call last month, the CEO of the multibillion-dollar real estate company Douglas Emmett remarked that a recession could be “good” for the commercial real estate business “if it comes with a level of unemployment that puts employers back in the driver seat,” as The Intercept reported. Though recessions can be bad for business in many ways, they’re great for crushing growing labor power.

While it’s true that inflation hurts workers by making consumer goods more expensive, inflation disproportionately hurts the rich and benefits debtors. The effects of inflation are not evenly felt across the board. For example, wage hikes are outpacing inflation in some of the lowest-paid jobs, like leisure and hospitality workers. What’s more, the minimum wage hasn’t kept pace with inflation for decades.

This summer, Warren again raised alarm about Powell, this time over the risks of the Fed’s rate hikes, warning that the decision to increase rates “risks triggering a devastating recession.”

According to the Fed’s own research, Warren is correct.

On Thursday, following reports that the Federal Reserve would likely soon jack up the federal interest rate again — this time by 0.75 percentage points — Chair Jerome Powell tried to allay fears that the Fed’s strategy would cause an economic downturn, insisting that another rate hike was unlikely to cause a deep recession.

2022

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Date	Increase	Level (%)
July 28	75	2.25-2.50
June 16	75	1.50-1.75
May 5	50	0.75-1.00
March 17	25	0.25-0.50

The interest rate hikes, which nominally serve as a way for the Federal Reserve to tamp down inflation, are also a way to put economic power back in the hands of the very rich by driving up unemployment, since higher interest rates make it more expensive for banks to loan people money, leading to scarcer investment and therefore fewer jobs.

Powell downplayed the effect the Federal Reserve’s moves were likely to have on working people. “We think we can avoid the very high social costs that Paul Volcker and the Fed had to bring into play to get inflation back down,” Powell said, referring to the period in the 1980s when the Fed similarly hiked interest rates and engineered a recession.

The Fed’s own research suggests otherwise. Powell’s remarks reflect an attitude common among financial elites that the Fed can execute a “soft landing” in which enough pain can be inflicted on the economy to reduce inflation but not so much that the economy slides into recession. But an extraordinary yet little-noticed Federal Reserve study undercuts the exact case Powell is trying to make — published while he was making it. The study warns that the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes this year echo a strategy it undertook a century ago that led to a depression because the Fed did not account for how quickly unemployment can spike in response to rate hikes.

“Strong (tight) labor markets can become weak (slack) faster than policymakers may anticipate,” the authors write. “Indeed, our results demonstrate that labor demand reacted sharply and quickly to the tightening of monetary policy, at a speed which can outpace policymakers’ abilities to track current economic conditions.”

The study, published July 27 by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, looks at the depression of 1920, the circumstances of which are eerily similar to today. The Federal Reserve Board, the main governing body of the Fed, has over 400 economists who conduct research for consideration by other economists, a board spokesperson, Joseph Pavel, explained...

While the Fed’s aggressive policy in 1920 did succeed in tamping down inflation, the study found that it also had a devastating effect on workers. “In 1920, the Federal Reserve Banks hiked their discount rates to tame inflation, and the U.S. economy entered a severe recession, now known as the Depression of 1920,” the study says, drawing on labor market data that was only systematically assembled in recent years. The result was that “labor demand sharply contracted, with manufacturing and other industrial sectors leading the way with large reductions in job vacancies.”

Asked how the Fed squares its rate hikes with the contrary findings of its own study, Pavel, the spokesperson for the Fed Board of Governors, pointed to a disclaimer on the study that states, “The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or the Board of Governors.” The study’s authors, Jin Wook B. Chang, a Federal Reserve Board of Governors senior economist, and Haelim Anderson, a Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation economist, did not respond to requests for comment.

Though the authors of the study aren’t opposed to Fed interest rate hikes wholesale, they caution against using rate hikes in rapid succession — as the Fed is currently doing — due to the delay it takes for the economic effects of rate hikes to register.

In December 1919, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York hiked interest rates from 4 percent to 4.75 percent and then, in June 1920, all the way up to 7 percent. The study explains what happened next: “As the Federal Reserve Banks were increasing rates, a sharp, deep recession began in 1920 lasting until 1921,” the study says. “Up to that point, the recession was one of the deepest measured and is still often referred to as the Depression of 1920. Manufacturing production declined by 22 percent, and unemployment rate rose by 11 percent, from 5.2 percent to 11.3 percent.”

The warning seems prudent in light of the fact that the U.S. gross domestic product just contracted for a second consecutive quarter — the traditional definition of a recession.

The Federal Reserve has hiked rates four times this year so far: in March, May, June, and July, cumulatively bringing the federal interest rate from 0.25 percent to between 2.25 percent and 2.5 percent. These represent the first rate increases since 2018; the hike in June was the largest rate hike since 1994. During his closely watched annual address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium late last month, Powell indicated that the rate hikes would continue. “Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth. Moreover, there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions,” the Fed chair said. “While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation.”

✓ Fed’s Exit Puts World’s Biggest Bond Market on Shakier Ground

The New York Times - Joe Rennison • 1h

Traders are worried about the world’s largest and most important government bond market, as the Federal Reserve quickens the pace at which it removes one of its primary pandemic supports. When the global economy crashed in March 2020 and markets went into free fall, the U.S. Treasury market — the …

“Competition comes from nowhere,” said Pichai, the CEO of ...So it shows how vibrant this market is. It looks nothing like it looked a few years ago,” he said.

REALITY CHECK

Most popular web search engines.

The search engine world is dominated by Google, which is the most popular web search engine according to Google search stats. The top six search engines, according to popularity are:

Google – 92.7% market share
Bing – 2.8% market share
Yahoo! – 1.6% market share
Baidu – 0.9% market share
Yandex – 0.8% market share
DuckDuckGo – 0.5% market share

" Pichai is the head of one of the most successful businesses in the world, one that dominates the online advertising market — but he says that doesn’t mean he can rest on his laurels.

At Vox Media’s Code Conference in Beverly Hills, California, Pichai talked about facing a “hyper-intense” market in tech during a period of economic uncertainty. The idea that Google is struggling could also serve as a useful argument at a time when Big Tech critics like Sen. Amy Klobuchar are pushing antitrust legislation that would target the company.

“Competition comes from nowhere,” said Pichai, the CEO of Google as well as its parent company Alphabet, which also owns YouTube. “You know, none of us were talking about TikTok three years ago.”

TikTok, the short-form video platform that has skyrocketed to become one of the world’s most popular apps is just one of the challenges Pichai is facing in the current market.

Alphabet has faced a significant decline in its stock price in the past year as the recent economic slowdown has hit many Big Tech companies’ advertising-based income. In the second quarter of 2022, Alphabet missed its earnings and revenue estimates for the second consecutive quarter.

“I mean, you’re now talking about multiple companies, and there are very good companies like Trade Desk and so on. So it shows how vibrant this market is. It looks nothing like it looked a few years ago,” he said.

This means that Google, one of the biggest employers in tech and a company famous for offering its full-time staff generous benefits, is also tightening its belt.

“I have always held the view that you tend to go wrong by focusing too much on competition,” Pichai said. “Big companies particularly fail because they stumble internally.”

In recent months, the company has initiated a hiring freeze. Pichai has also warned his staff that their productivity and focus need to improve.

“We need to be more entrepreneurial working with greater urgency, sharper focus, and more hunger than we’ve shown on sunnier days,” Pichai told Google staff in an internal memo in July.

When asked how Google can be more productive, Pichai said that “with scale, you can be slower to make decisions.”

Kara Swisher joked onstage with Pichai about how a fictionalized version of Google was depicted on the popular HBO comedy series Silicon Valley. “People are just, you know ... all up on the roof, resting and vesting,” she said.

“I’ve never watched Silicon Valley,” replied Pichai. “Too close to home.”

Mixed Media: "Charles in Charge"

Intro:

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Series / Charles in Charge - TV Tropes

tvtropes.org › Series

tv show charles in charge, Opinion | Charles in Charge from tvtropes.org

Charles in Charge was a Dom Com that starred Scott Baio as a college-age "nanny" to the children of the families he lived with in New Brunswick, New Jersey.

CHARLES IN CHARGE 1984 Cast THEN AND NOW 2022 INCREDIBLE Changed, Thanks For The Memories - YouTube

m.youtube.com › watch

Video for tv show charles in charge, Opinion | Charles in Charge

Duration: 10:31
Posted: Aug 4, 2022

Maureen Dowd

Sept. 10, 2022

Credit... Pool photo by Bob Dear, via Associated Press

WASHINGTON — "His whole life, King Charles has been in the shadow of women with more star power.

First, his mother, the queen. Next, his first wife, Diana. Then, in recent years, Meghan Markle, with her breakaway from Buckingham Palace and her sensational Oprah interview alleging racism in the royal family.

As the women around him held the spotlight, the Prince of Wales spent decades trying to find himself and prove he was not a mere ornament, fretting that he did not want a life of polo and cutting ribbons.

I saw this dynamic up close, on the 1985 visit of Prince Charles and Princess Diana to Washington, four years after they married. They brought 7,000 pounds of luggage.

It’s hard to remember, but in public, they seemed to delight in each other’s company back then, with smiles, winks and teasing.

Charles was charming and self-deprecating, chatting with lawmakers and hoi polloi about everything from Baltimore architecture to the TV hit “Dynasty.”

He was so smooth people compared him to Cary Grant. Even the biting British tabloid reporters on the trip were at a loss for a negative angle. “I think the myth of him being a wimp has been dispelled by himself,” said James Whitaker, then The Daily Mirror’s royal watcher.

But as the visit wore on, heads swiveled to Diana. If the royals are the last great silent film stars, as some say, here was Garbo.

Diana rarely spoke in public. She didn’t have to. When the couple experienced Americana in a suburban mall, she unveiled The Look. She tucked her chin, then flashed those sky blues under her hooded lids and her hat brim — a look both shy and sulky.

Diana seemed to relish her ability to draw all attention wordlessly. Charles seemed to handle it well, but I wondered how it would work out in the long run. (It didn’t.)

The capstone of the trip came when Nancy Reagan played fairy godmother to Cinderella at a White House dinner. Diana wore a midnight blue velvet gown and a pearl-and-sapphire choker. As the princess started tapping her fingers on the table and her feet on the floor to the music, Mrs. Reagan led over Diana’s dance partner: John Travolta. The Marine Band had been practicing “Night Fever,” and the glamorous pair twirled. “Diana’s Saturday Night Fever,” The Daily Mail trumpeted.

m.youtube.com › watch

Duration: 3:58
Posted: Sep 26, 2021

“She’s a great little mover,” Mr. Travolta pronounced afterward.

Diana was euphoric. No one seemed to notice if Charles was having a good time.

I was raised in an Irish family baked in bitterness about British oppression. The monarchy seems like an expensive relic to me, and I think King Charles, on the throne at last at 73, will struggle with a domain in which former colonies may consider dropping him as head of state.

I always thought of Queen Elizabeth as an avatar of nepotism and colonialism. But as time went on, and victimhood became the fashion, I began to have a creeping admiration for her stoicism.

Then, in 2011, I covered her fraught trip to Ireland, the first by a British monarch in a century. Suddenly I understood how one small movement of her head could soothe over 800 years of bloodshed and hatred. . .

The queen showed all the empathy and warmth she could not summon when Diana died. By the end of the visit, the Irish had melted. They were calling Elizabeth their “prodigal mother,” “Liz,” and some were even waving Union Jacks. Her Irish guard of honor gave her the moniker “Eilis A Do,” Gaelic for Elizabeth II.

The women who overshadowed Charles are gone now. We’ll see what this new king can do, as he collects his prize in the primogeniture lottery and steps into a spotlight that’s all his own."

MesaZona > Table of Contents : Here's The Menu. Enjoy

Monday, September 12, 2022

CONSEQUENCES OF CONFLICTS: Expect A New Spike in Gas Prices...The US is Profiting from the Recession in Europe

Yellen: Rising gas prices are a 'risk' this winter - CNN Video

Oil prices could spike in winter, Yellen says - Reuters

The US is Profiting from the Recession in Europe - Novinite.com - Sofia News Agency

200 DAYS OF CONFLICT IN THE UKRAINE... It is, in the words of writer Caitlin Johnstone, “the most aggressively trolled war of all time.”

Exposed: The vast pro-Ukrainian 'bot army' designed to influence Western policy makers

Ukraine and US increased intel-sharing prior to counteroffensive – NYT

U.S. Military Aid to Ukraine Grows to Historic Proportions — Along With Risks

Sunday, September 11, 2022

There are signs...

✓ Fed’s Own Economist Warns of “Severe Recession” From Chair Powell’s Rate Hikes

2022

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✓ Fed’s Exit Puts World’s Biggest Bond Market on Shakier Ground

“Competition comes from nowhere,” said Pichai, the CEO of ...So it shows how vibrant this market is. It looks nothing like it looked a few years ago,” he said.

Google CEO Sundar Pichai swears his company has real competition

Most popular web search engines.

Mixed Media: "Charles in Charge"

Series / Charles in Charge - TV Tropes

CHARLES IN CHARGE 1984 Cast THEN AND NOW 2022 INCREDIBLE Changed, Thanks For The Memories - YouTube

Opinion | Charles in Charge

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