Thursday, January 12, 2023

Blueprint is a landmark strategy for cutting all greenhouse emissions from the transportation sector by 2050

 

www.energy.gov

Biden-Harris Administration Releases First-Ever Blueprint to Decarbonize America’s Transportation Sector 



5 - 6 minutes

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The Biden-Harris Administration today released the U.S. National Blueprint for Transportation Decarbonization. Developed by the Departments of Energy, Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and the Environmental Protection Agency, the Blueprint is a landmark strategy for cutting all greenhouse emissions from the transportation sector by 2050. It exemplifies the Biden-Harris Administration’s whole-of-government approach to addressing the climate crisis and meeting President Biden’s goals of securing a 100% clean electrical grid by 2035 and reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. The Blueprint builds on President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act, which together represent historic investments in the future of our nation that will transform how we move and live while we build the backbone of a safer and more sustainable transportation system.

Jointly announced by U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm, U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Marcia Fudge, and Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael S. Regan, the Blueprint is the first milestone deliverable of the historic memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by the agencies in September of last year. The Blueprint will be followed by more detailed decarbonization action plans, to be developed and implemented by these agencies in cooperation with governments at the State, local, and Tribal level, philanthropic organizations, the private sector, and global partners.

“The domestic transportation sector presents an enormous opportunity to drastically reduce emissions that accelerate climate change and reduce harmful pollution,” said U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm. “DOE is prepared to implement this Blueprint alongside our partners within the Biden-Harris Administration to ensure all Americans feel the benefits of the clean transportation transition: good-paying manufacturing jobs, better air quality, and lower transportation costs.”

“Transportation policy is inseparable from housing and energy policy, and transportation accounts for a major share of US greenhouse gas emissions, so we must work together in an integrated way to confront the climate crisis,” said U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg. “Every decision about transportation is also an opportunity to build a cleaner, healthier, more prosperous future. When our air is cleaner; when more people can get good-paying jobs; when everyone stays connected to the resources they need and the people they love, we are all better off.”

“Under the leadership of President Biden, EPA is working with our federal partners to aggressively reduce pollution that is harming people and our planet – while saving families money at the same time,” said U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael S. Regan. “At EPA, our priority is to protect public health, especially in overburdened communities, while advancing the President’s ambitious climate agenda. This Blueprint is a step forward in delivering on those goals and accelerating the transition to a clean transportation future.”

“The people HUD serves deserve clean, affordable transportation options,” said U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Marcia Fudge. “HUD is proud to join our federal partners at Energy, DOT, and EPA to ensure that clean transportation investments are made equitably and include communities and households that have been most harmed by environmental injustice. We look forward to working together to better align transportation, housing, and community development investments in these and other communities across the country.”

The transportation sector—which includes all modes of travel through land, air, and sea to move people and goods—accounts for a third of all domestic greenhouse gas emissions, negatively affecting the health and well-being of millions of Americans, particularly those in disadvantaged communities. Transportation costs are the second largest annual household expense in our country and for the poorest Americans, the financial burden of transportation is disproportionately and unsustainably high.

A well-planned transition to a decarbonized transportation system can address these and other inequities and provide equitable, affordable, and accessible options for moving people and goods. Further developing and deploying clean-energy technologies such as electric vehicles and hydrogen and sustainable fuels, while also building out the supporting infrastructure for clean transportation, will create good-paying jobs in all segments of the transportation sector while strengthening America’s energy independence.

The Blueprint is a critical step in the ongoing partnership between DOE, DOT, EPA, HUD, and stakeholders and will be followed by more detailed sector-specific action plans to create a comprehensive suite of strategies to realize an improved and sustainable transportation future. Learn more about the MOU and Blueprint." 

RELATED CONTENT



The Biden-Harris Administration has released the U.S. National Blueprint for Transportation Decarbonization, an interagency framework of strategies and actions to remove all emissions from the transportation sector by 2050.
2 days ago · Landmark Blueprint Will Advance the President's Clean Transportation Agenda, Slashing Consumer Costs, Improving Public Health, ...
2 days ago · Landmark Blueprint Will Advance the President's Clean Transportation Agenda, Slashing Consumer Costs, Improving Public Health, ...
2 days ago · The Biden Administration on Tuesday announced the first-ever “blueprint” to decarbonize America's transportation sector, which includes both ...
2 days ago · The Blueprint is a landmark strategy for cutting all greenhouse emissions from the transportation sector by 2050.
2 days ago · The Biden administration announced a first-of-its-kind roadmap to decarbonize the transportation sector by 2050.
2 days ago · The federal government aims to cut all greenhouse emissions from America's transportation system by 2050. On Tuesday, the Biden-Harris ...
2 days ago · Biden–Harris Administration Releases 1st-Ever Blueprint To Decarbonize America's Transportation Sector. Biden administration plan seeks ...
ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY · Biden-Harris Administration Releases First-Ever Blueprint to Decarbonize America's Transportation Sector (USDOT) · Michigan chief ...
“DOE is prepared to implement this Blueprint alongside our partners within the Biden-Harris Administration to ensure all Americans feel the benefits of the ...
Biden–Harris Administration Releases 1st-Ever Blueprint to Decarbonize America's Transportation Sector · Share · More from r/EV_Trading_Community · 's profile

FREEDOM OF THE SEAS: Iran plans to strengthen maritime presence in international waters.'

✓ Iran's plans for the Panama Canal come days after the third anniversary of the assignation of the prominent Iranian general Qasem Soleimani, who was killed in a targeted drone strike by the US on January 3, 2020. 


 

✓  Iran's presence in the Panama Canal has been cause for concern as it could be used to smuggle weapons and other illicit items. 

's bid to sail navy ships through the Panama Canal could mark the first time the country's warships entered the Pacific Ocean. 

english.almayadeen.net

In a first, Iran to establish military presence in Panama Canal

Al Mayadeen English
3 minutes

This marks Iran entering the Pacific Ocean region for the first time ever. 



  •  Two Iranian navy warships are seen docked at Port Sudan in the Red Sea. (Reuters)

For the first time, Iran's navy will station vessels in the Panama Canal, a vital economic artery in America's backyard that has never seen an Iranian military presence.

The commander of Iran's navy, Rear Admiral Shahram Irani, confirmed on Wednesday that Iranian forces will establish a presence in the Panama Canal later this year, marking the first time Iran's military has reached the Pacific Ocean.

This comes as Iran has been cementing ties with Latin American countries, most notably Venezuela, in recent years within the framework of the country's development roadmap. 

Iranian ships have docked in Venezuela more regularly, as the two countries share a similar history of enduring excruciating sanctions by the US and its allies. 

Iran frequently delivers fuel to Venezuela and often helps it sell its oil abroad as Iran possesses the necessary refineries to turn crude oil into high-value consumer products such as gas.

In February this year, the two countries announced that direct flights between Tehran and Caracas will become operational starting in August.

In June, the two countries' leaders concluded a 20-year cooperation plan to expand joint cooperation in various sectors, such as oil, banking, and the economy.

Executive Director of the Center for a Secure Free Society and national security analyst Joseph Humire, who focuses on Latin American issues, argued that Iran has been planning for this type of voyage by holding joint exercises with allies such as Russia and China, both of which have been cementing their ties with Latin American countries.

"This is what Iran has been building in Latin America for the past 30 or 40 years" by establishing embassies and bilateral agreements with a host of nations, Humire added.

On this issue, Iranian Rear Admiral Irani commented by saying that the navy presence in the Panama Canal is meant to "strengthen our maritime presence in international waters," as per comments published by local media outlets.

"Today we can say that there is no scientific barrier to grow in that field," Irani added.

Read next: Liberation movements in a historical echo: Latin America to West Asia

www.express.co.uk

US on alert as Iran navy chief vows to send warships to Panama canal

Tim McNulty
5 - 6 minutes

Iranian Admiral Shahram Irani has announced a plan to send warships to the Panama Canal in a brazen challenge to US hegemony in Latin America.

Russia to provide Iran with 'military components' says Wallace




"...During a ceremony in Iran's capital, Admiral Irani said the navy's plans for the Panama Canal were intended to 'strengthen our maritime presence in international waters.'

'The army navy has been present in all the strategic straits in the world to date, and we have not been present in only two straits, and we will be present in one of these straits this year,' Irani said. 'We are planning to be present in the Panama Canal,'



 


 'Today we have to strengthen our maritime presence in international waters and today we can say that there is no scientific barrier to grow in that field,' he added, according to Iranian state-controlled media.

✓ Panama Canal connects the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean. It is located about 2,500 miles away from the United States' southernmost border.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Iran vows to station warships in the Panama canal after building ties with Latin American dictators

Alex Oliveira
10 - 13 minutes

Iran vows to station WARSHIPS in critical trading route the Panama canal after building ties with Latin American dictators in bid to threaten the US on its doorstep

, updated

  • Iran's navy said it will have a presence in the Panama Canal by the end of 2023
  • The move is the latest Iran has made to establish itself in America's backyard
  • Iran has been building strong ties with anti-American Latin American leaders like Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro, who many have called a dictator
  • Experts say Iran's activities in Latin America are intended to defy the US

Iran is planning to station warships in the Panama Canal, the latest move in its ongoing campaign to install a presence in Latin America and infiltrate the United States' backyard.

The commander of Iran's Navy, Rear Admiral Shahram Irani, announced the plans on Wednesday and said they would come to fruition later this year. A presence in the Panama Canal would mark the first time Iran's navy has sailed in the Pacific Ocean. . .

✓ Latin American focused national security analyst for the Center for a Secure Free Society think tank Joseph Humire said Iran's plans for Panama are part of its ongoing campaign to install itself in the US' backyard.

'This is what Iran has been building in Latin America for the past 30 or 40 years' by establishing embassies and bilateral agreements with a host of nations, Humire said, according to The Washington Free Beacon.

He said Iran's intent 'has always been to have a military presence in Latin America, so it's not surprising at all for its navy to announce it's going to make moves on the Panama Canal.'

'This is a tremendous escalation if it is to happen,' he added. 'Many people may discount Iran in terms of its capabilities, but I would not discount it because they have been building to this for a very long time.' 



Humire noted Iran's plans have also long included establishing embassies across the region, and signing treaties to strengthen ties with sympathetically anti-American nations. . . 

Among those efforts in Latin America is a prominent relationship Iran has been building with Venezuela, which is currently under the rule of President Maduro, who many have likened to a dictator and has long been an adversary of the United States.

Just last June, Iran and Venezuela signed a 20-year strategic cooperation agreement which officially solidified economic ties between the two nations which have been heavily sanctioned by the US.

Maduro travelled to Iran to sign the agreement in person with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. 

Iranian ships have also frequently docked in ports along Venezuela coasts in recent years, demonstrating its ability to station warships across the Gulf of Mexico from the US. 

Other forays into Latin America from Iran include a similar treaty signed with Nicaragua just last month. Iranian diplomates called the plan a 'new and strategic' cooperation treaty, according to the Tehran Times.

In August, Iran's Vice President Mohammad Hosseini travelled to Colombia to attend the inauguration of President Gustavo Petro, who has been outspokenly critical of US policies. 

During that trip, Hosseini also met with Brazilian Foreign Minister Carlos Alberto Franco Franca, who said 'We are determined to shore up our relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran in different areas, including political and economic areas,' according to Iran Press Agency.

And last fall, Bolivian officials notably voiced support for Iran even as most of the world condemned its violent response to mass protests across the nation.

Bolivian ambassador to Iran, Romina Pérez, called Iran Bolivia's brother and said the South American country 'condemns the disturbances in Iran perpetrated by British and American Zionists. We are sure these problems will be resolved with the understanding of the dear leader of Iran.'

RELATED CONTENT 

24 hours ago · Iran's navy is set to station warships for the first time in the Panama Canal, a critical trade route in America's backyard that has never ...
5 minutes ago · For the first time, Iran's navy will station vessels in the Panama Canal, a vital economic artery in America's backyard that has never seen ...
1 day ago · TEHRAN - Navy Commander Rear Admiral Shahram Irani said on Wednesday that Iran is planning to extend its area of operation to the Panama ...
Panama, Iran from www.tasnimnews.com
1 day ago · TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Shahram Irani said plans are underway to dispatch naval forces to the Panama Canal as ... 
2 days ago · A US citizen established front companies in Iran, the UAE and Panama, purchased oil tankers and used false shipping documents to carry out ...
3 days ago · Behrouz Mokhtari, 72, of McLean, Virginia, and Tehran, Iran, ... In furtherance of the scheme, Mokhtari created a Panama-based front company ...



Traders Lose Trust in CPI Data Security in Wake of Volume Shock

 



finance.yahoo.com

Traders Lose Trust in CPI Data Security in Wake of Volume Shock

Elena Popina, Liz Capo McCormick and Lydia Beyoud
5 - 6 minutes

(Bloomberg) -- Traders from New York to Chicago to London will be glued to their screens Thursday morning waiting for the latest consumer price index reading from the Labor Department, which is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.

Most Read from Bloomberg

In fact, many will be watching trading closely before the numbers even hit — because of what happened last month.

On Dec. 13, the monthly CPI, one of the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation measures, was scheduled to be released precisely at 8:30 a.m. as usual. But something odd happened in the 60 seconds leading up to it. Trading volume in 10-year Treasury futures soared, reaching three times the level seen a minute before the release of any of the last 24 CPI reports, Bloomberg Economics analysis showed.


“The volume of trading was quite extraordinary,” said J. Christopher Giancarlo, head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission during the first part of the Trump administration and now senior counsel at the law firm Willkie Farr & Gallagher.

The Labor Department dismissed the possibility of a data leak after conducting an initial investigation. There’s been no indication that regulators such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or Securities and Exchange Commission are digging into the situation.

A CFTC spokesman said the agency watches market movements every day, in response to a question about how it plans to monitor the Treasury futures market ahead of the next CPI release. The SEC didn’t respond to a request for comment.


Even so, no one has been able to explain what went on, and speculation remains that the trading spike was caused by a hack or leak.

“I think this demonstrates how important it is to have a release process that has the trust and confidence of market participants, especially during times of economic uncertainty, when the latest statistics are of pivotal importance,” said Graham Harper, head of public policy and market structure at Chicago-based DRW, one of the biggest trading firms in the world. “The current release mechanism for economic data introduces doubt about the integrity of the process.”

Taking No Chances

The report has spurred outsize market swings in recent months as an inflation surge gripped the public. A study by Barclays Plc strategists including Anshul Gupta and Stefano Pascale last year found that over the past decade, stocks have never been so negatively reactive to an economic indicator as they are now to CPI.

This next set of figures is even more crucial, since it will be a key determinant to whether Fed officials raise interest rates by a half percentage point for the second straight meeting or downshift to a quarter point. The median CPI forecasts of economists are for a 0.1% decline and a 0.3% gain in so-called core CPI, which excludes food and energy.

Options traders are pricing in a 2% move by the S&P 500 in either direction on Thursday. While not small, the reading is still below a 3% realized move after the five prior inflation reports, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

From a regulatory perspective, the situation presents a good opportunity for government officials to do an internal probe to restore trust in the financial markets by taking an overall look at how CPI data are released — with the potential to reassure markets that the playing field is level, Giancarlo said.

Meanwhile, Themis Trading LLC’s Joseph Saluzzi isn’t taking chances. He said it’s worth being extra careful this time and he’ll scrutinize trading in the minutes before the report a little more closely than ahead of previous data.

“People are going be more on alert now in that minute before CPI, even as the official sector is saying ‘All is OK, there was nothing that really happened’,” said Chris Ahrens, strategist at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. “And in the wake of the payroll numbers, the onus now lies on the inflation numbers to sort of set the table for whether the Fed goes 25 or 50 basis points at their next meeting.”

--With assistance from Reade Pickert and Chris Middleton.

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

REUTERS TODAY TSMC cuts 2023 capex after record Q4 as chip demand weakens

 

www.reuters.com

TSMC cuts 2023 capex after record Q4 as chip demand weakens 




4 minute readJanuary 12, 20232:37 AM MSTLast Updated 4 hours ago
5 - 6 minutes

  • Summary
  • Companies
  • Q4 profit T$295.9 bln vs T$289.44 bln analyst view
  • Q4 revenue up 26.7% on year at $19.93 bln
  • Sees 2023 capex at $32-36 bln vs $36.3 bln year prior
  • Company plans to ramp up production overseas

TAIPEI, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC (2330.TW) warned on Thursday that first-quarter revenue would drop as much as 5% and it would slash annual investment as the major Apple Inc (AAPL.O) supplier expects softer demand due to a slowing global economy.

The bearish outlook follows a forecast-beating 78% jump in fourth-quarter profit, underscoring the depth of a sharp slowdown in a global technology sector that is grappling with worsening consumer demand brought about by decades-high inflation rates, rising interest rates and an economic downturn.

Still, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC) , the world's most valuable chipmaker, forecast growth would return in the second half of this year.



 

"We forecast the semiconductor cycle to bottom sometime in first half and see a recovery in second half 2023," CEO C.C. Wei said, adding the rebound would be boosted by new product launches such as artificial intelligence-enabled goods.

The world's largest contract chipmaker said its capital expenditure in 2023 would decrease to $32-36 billion from $36.3 billion in 2022.

First-half revenue is seen posting a mid to high single-digit percent decline. First-quarter revenue is expected in a range of $16.7 billion to $17.5 billion, compared with $17.57 billion a year earlier.

INVESTMENT

TSMC's dominance in making some of the most advanced chips for high-end customers such as Apple has shielded it from downturn. But the company is likely to fall victim to the deepening slowdown, with the current quarter likely to mark its first sales drop in four years.

The fourth quarter "was dampened by end-market demand softness and customers' inventory adjustment," Chief Financial Officer Wendell Huang told a briefing, adding such conditions will carry into the first quarter.

"Given the near-term uncertainties, we continue to manage our business prudently and tighten up our capital spending where appropriate," Huang said. "Our disciplined capex and capacity planning remain based on the long-term market demand profile."

TSMC, Asia's most-valuable listed firm, backed by billionaire Warren Buffett's investment conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N), has repeatedly said business would continue to benefit from a "mega-trend" of demand for high-performance computing chips for 5G networks and data centres, as well as increased use of chips in gadgets and vehicles.

It reiterated on Thursday slower demand was a cyclical issue and 2023 overall would be a slight growth year for the company.

TSMC said it plans to ramp up production outside Taiwan, as global attention focuses on its investment plan and various governments dangle incentives to boost chip manufacturing in their countries.

It said at least one-fifth of its 28 nanometre (nm) and more advanced node capacity, which accounted for most of the company's revenue in 2022, could be overseas "within five years or more."

✓ TSMC late last year began construction of a second chip factory in Arizona which will start production in 2026, using advanced 3 nm. Its total investment in the U.S. project amounts to $40 billion.


 

CEO Wei said TSMC was considering building a second fab in Japan, and in Europe it was also evaluating the possibility of building a speciality fab focused on the auto industry without providing further details.

He added the company expected the auto chip shortage to be "relaxed quickly".

For October-December, TSMC booked record net profit of T$295.9 billion ($9.72 billion) from T$166.2 billion a year earlier. That compared with the T$289.44 billion average of 21 analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv.

Revenue climbed 26.7% to $19.93 billion, versus TSMC's prior estimated range of $19.9 billion to $20.7 billion.

TSMC's share price fell 27.1% in 2022, but is up 8.5% so far this year giving the firm a market value of $412.78 billion. The stock rose 0.4% on Thursday versus a 0.1% fall for the benchmark index (.TWII).

($1 = 30.4420 Taiwan dollars)

Reporting by Yimou Lee and Sarah Wu; Writing by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Christopher Cushing and Conor Humphries

article-prompt-devices

Electric Vehicles.... As with everything else on climate, it’s not one story unfolding but many, and all at once.

".

... The vast majority of electric vehicles are now sold in the world’s richer economies, and mid-transition challenges like building out new charging infrastructure are potentially much larger in lower income countries. But there, at least for now, the electric vehicle revolution is taking a very different shape — often with two or three wheels rather than four. Globally, there are 10 times as many electric scooters, mopeds and motorcycles on the road as true electric cars, accounting already for almost half of all sales of those vehicles and responsible already for eliminating more carbon emissions than all the world’s four-wheel E.V.s. It’s been something of a secret revolution here, too: In 2020, Americans bought twice as many e-bikes as they did E.V.s. As with everything else on climate, it’s not one story unfolding but many, and all at once.


14 hours ago · The shocking growth of electric vehicles is “enough to make many optimistic observers giddy with anticipation of what's to come,” writes dwallacewells.
12 hours ago · Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit · login · Electric Vehicles Keep Defying Almost Everyone's Predictions (nytimes.com).
23 hours ago · Switching to EVs will save nearly everyone money and reduce carbon emissions, study says · Greenhouse gas emissions drop nearly two-thirds when motorists switch ...
 
www.nytimes.com

Opinion | Electric Vehicles Keep Defying Almost Everyone’s Predictions

David Wallace-Wells

9-12 minutes

Thursday, January 12, 2023 



"It is striking that in the same year that Tesla’s stock price dropped by about two-thirds, destroying more than $700 billion in market value, the global market for electric vehicles — which for so long the company seemed almost to embody — actually boomed.

Boom may not even adequately communicate what happened. Around the world, E.V. sales were projected to have grown 60 percent in 2022, according to a BloombergNEF report prepared ahead of the 2022 U.N. climate conference COP27, bringing total sales over 10 million. There are now almost 30 million electric vehicles on the road in total, up from just 10 million at the end of 2020. E.V. market share has also tripled since 2020.

The pandemic years can feel a bit like a vacuum, but there are almost three times as many E.V.s on the world’s roads now as there were when Covid vaccines were first approved, and what looked not that long ago like a climate pipe dream is now undeniably underway: a genuine transition away from fossil-fueled transportation. This week, the Biden administration released a blueprint toward a net zero transportation sector by 2050. It’s an ambitious goal, especially for such a car-intoxicated culture as ours. But it’s also one that, thanks to trends elsewhere in the world, is beginning to seem more and more plausible, at least on the E.V. front.

In Norway, electric vehicles now represent four out of every five new cars sold; the figure was just one in five as recently as 2016. In Germany, more than 55 percent of new cars registered in December were electric or hybrid. In China, where more electric vehicles are sold than everywhere else in the world combined, the rise is perhaps even more dramatic: from 3.5 percent of the market at the beginning of 2020 to 20.3 percent at the beginning of 2022. And growing, of course: Nearly twice as many electric vehicles were sold last year in China as in the year before. The country also exported $3.2 billion worth of E.V.s last November alone, more than double the exports of the previous November. Its largest single manufacturer, BYD, has surpassed Tesla for global market share — so perhaps it should not be so surprising that Tesla’s stock is dimming while the global outlook is so sunny.

This is not just eye-popping growth, it is also dramatically faster than most analysts were projecting just a few years ago. In 2020, the International Energy Agency projected that the global share of electric vehicle sales would not top 10 percent before 2030. It appears we’ve already crossed that bar eight years early, and BloombergNEF now projects that the market share of E.V.s will approach 40 percent by the end of the decade. (The I.E.A. is less bullish but has still roughly doubled its 2030 projection in just two years.) The underlying production capacity is perhaps even more encouraging. In the United States, investments in battery manufacturing reached a record $73 billion last year — three times as much as the previous record, set the year before. Globally, battery manufacturing capacity grew almost 40 percent last year, and is projected to grow fivefold by just 2025. By that year, lithium mining is expected to be triple what it was in 2021.

We’ve seen this phenomenon before, with many other areas of the green transition experiencing similarly shocking exponential or quasi-exponential growth: renewable energy investments in the United States quadrupling in a decade, global investments in clean tech growing more than 30-fold over the same period, a solar supply chain already big enough to facilitate a total transition. It’s enough to make many optimistic observers giddy with anticipation of what’s to come.

What is to come?

It is tempting to believe that designing a future is as simple as drawing the right trajectory on a whiteboard. But as with everything else when it comes to climate, the challenge is bigger than that — indeed, the fact that trend lines are beginning to point in the right direction can be a kind of false comfort, since technologies like these don’t just descend from the cloud onto the world’s phones. And the scientist Vaclav Smil’s gloomy comparisons to previous energy transitions aside, the world hasn’t undertaken a breakneck allover revolution like this ever before in its history. Do the familiar, S-shaped learning curves of technological adaptation mean that it should be very easy, and indeed remunerative, for the world to get on track to limit warming below two degrees Celsius, or even 1.5 degrees, as a much talked about paper produced by Oxford’s Institute for New Economic Thinking has suggested? Or, as the scholar Jessica Jewell has argued in the journal Nature Energy and elsewhere, do the limitations of practical obstacles and political economy mean that, even assuming those encouraging learning curves, much more would have to be done to ensure technological adoption at that speed?

Here the E.V. revolution is an illuminating case study. To stabilize global temperatures, we have to get emissions basically all the way down to zero, not just reduce them — an interesting November paper in the journal Geophysical Research Letters suggests it might be better to aim for “approximately” net zero emissions, since it may be the case that global temperatures could stabilize even if emissions aren’t entirely eliminated. To do that, we need to stop burning fossil fuels in cars, not just supplement the existing fleet with slightly more green alternatives. A rapid growth in market share isn’t itself sufficient, in other words, because — like carbon itself, which hangs in the air for centuries at least — dirty cars stay on the road for a very long time, emitting all the while.

Economists call this a problem of stocks rather than flows. In this case, while the “flows” are indeed impressive, the “stock” of E.V.s on the road is probably only 2 percent of the global fleet, which still isn’t close to 100 percent at all.

Rapid growth also opens up a new landscape of challenges. We used to worry whether there would be sufficient demand for electric vehicles, particularly given their cost and range limitations. But demand already outstrips supply, which, in addition to driving up the cost of E.V.s and creating manufacturing and delivery delays, has given rise to anxiety over the next roadblock: the empire of mineral extraction, refinement and production that has to be built to meet that. That obstacle may be in some ways smaller than it appears, as Hannah Ritchie, among others, has emphasized: We are not yet mining enough lithium to meet demand, but it’s not exactly a scarce resource, and even Ritchie’s relatively conservative estimates suggest there is more than enough for a battery vehicle revolution.

Those taking a broader view of the ecological costs of this project, like the activist Thea Riofrancos, worry over a different set of unresolved questions: Is it possible to design a system for extracting and producing these materials in anything close to a responsible way? One possible approach, flagged by the Volts newsletter writer David Roberts, among others: actually recycling batteries, treating lithium as a “renewable” rather than endlessly extracted resource.

Behind that challenge lies another: Will production of electric vehicles be interrupted by potential deglobalization in green industries or by America’s Inflation Reduction Act, which requires that a portion of E.V. batteries’ parts be sourced or manufactured domestically or by certain trading partners to qualify for tax credits? At the moment, China produces about 75 percent of all E.V. battery cells, manufactures roughly the same share of those cell components and does more refining of many of the biggest raw inputs than the rest of the world combined.

There are also problems of what the civil engineer Emily Grubert has memorably called the “mid-transition”: “this period in between kind of a stable fossil fuel dominated energy system and a future stable, clean energy dominated system.” It is easy enough to imagine the other side of any transition, particularly when so many forces are moving in the right direction. But you have to get to that other side, and that is not just a matter of building out the new system but also, crucially, of maintaining some of the old one too, and in proper balance.

If E.V.s and gas cars share the roads for a decade or two, how do you ensure or design the right mix of charging stations and gas pumps, and how do you map their locations? At what point do gas stations become unprofitable, and what happens then? These may seem like relatively technical questions, but the problems of the mid-transition extend to the matter of employment structures and pensions, the need for skilled labor to manage site cleanup and safety and the decline of funding from gas taxes for maintenance and infrastructure as gas consumption declines (if not all that rapidly to zero).

The vast majority of electric vehicles are now sold in the world’s richer economies, and mid-transition challenges like building out new charging infrastructure are potentially much larger in lower income countries. But there, at least for now, the electric vehicle revolution is taking a very different shape — often with two or three wheels rather than four. Globally, there are 10 times as many electric scooters, mopeds and motorcycles on the road as true electric cars, accounting already for almost half of all sales of those vehicles and responsible already for eliminating more carbon emissions than all the world’s four-wheel E.V.s. It’s been something of a secret revolution here, too: In 2020, Americans bought twice as many e-bikes as they did E.V.s. As with everything else on climate, it’s not one story unfolding but many, and all at once."

David Wallace-Wells (@dwallacewells), a writer for Opinion and a columnist for The New York Times Magazine, is the author of “The Uninhabitable Earth.”