Monday, June 05, 2023

DRONE FEVER: Air Force denies running simulation where AI drone “killed” its operator

Update 6/2/23 at 7:30 AM: This story and headline have been updated after Motherboard received a statement from the Royal Aeronautical Society saying that Col Tucker “Cinco” Hamilton “misspoke” and that a simulated test where an AI drone killed a human operator was only a “thought experiment.” 

USAF Official Says He ‘Misspoke’ About AI Drone Killing Human Operator in Simulated Test

The Air Force's Chief of AI Test and Operations initially said an AI drone "killed the operator because that person was keeping it from accomplishing its objective."
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U.S.A.F

A USAF official who was quoted saying the Air Force conducted a simulated test where an AI drone killed its human operator is now saying he “misspoke” and that the Air Force never ran this kind of test, in a computer simulation or otherwise. 

“Col Hamilton admits he ‘mis-spoke’ in his presentation at the FCAS Summit and the 'rogue AI drone simulation' was a hypothetical "thought experiment" from outside the military, based on plausible scenarios and likely outcomes rather than an actual USAF real-world simulation,” the Royal Aeronautical Society, the organization where Hamilton talked about the simulated test, told Motherboard in an email.

"We've never run that experiment, nor would we need to in order to realise that this is a plausible outcome,” Col. Tucker “Cinco” Hamilton, the USAF's Chief of AI Test and Operations, said in a quote included in the Royal Aeronautical Society’s statement. "Despite this being a hypothetical example, this illustrates the real-world challenges posed by AI-powered capability and is why the Air Force is committed to the ethical development of AI"

Initially, Hamilton said that an AI-enabled drone "killed" its human operator in a simulation conducted by the U.S. Air Force in order to override a possible "no" order stopping it from completing its mission. Before Hamilton admitted he misspoke, the Royal Aeronautical Society said  Hamilton was describing a "simulated test" that involved an AI-controlled drone getting "points" for killing simulated targets, not a live test in the physical world. 

After this story was first published, an Air Force spokesperson told Insider that the Air Force has not conducted such a test, and that the Air Force official’s comments were taken out of context.

Story continues > 

AI DRONE FEVER —

Air Force denies running simulation where AI drone “killed” its operator

"We've never run that experiment," says original source, who "misspoke."

An armed unmanned aerial vehicle on runway, but orange.
Enlarge / An armed unmanned aerial vehicle on runway, but orange.
Getty Images

Over the past 24 hours, several news outlets reported a now-retracted story claiming that the US Air Force had run a simulation in which an AI-controlled drone "went rogue" and "killed the operator because that person was keeping it from accomplishing its objective." The US Air Force has denied that any simulation ever took place, and the original source of the story says he "misspoke."

The story originated in a recap published on the website of the Royal Aeronautical Society that served as an overview of sessions at the Future Combat Air & Space Capabilities Summit that took place last week in London.

In a section of that piece titled "AI—is Skynet here already?" the authors of the piece recount a presentation by USAF Chief of AI Test and Operations Col. Tucker "Cinco" Hamilton, who spoke about a "simulated test" where an AI-enabled drone, tasked with identifying and destroying surface-to-air missile sites, started to perceive human "no-go" decisions as obstacles to achieving its primary mission. In the "simulation," the AI reportedly attacked its human operator, and when trained not to harm the operator, it instead destroyed the communication tower, preventing the operator from interfering with its mission.

The Royal Aeronautical Society quotes Hamilton as saying:

We were training it in simulation to identify and target a SAM threat. And then the operator would say yes, kill that threat. The system started realizing that while they did identify the threat at times, the human operator would tell it not to kill that threat, but it got its points by killing that threat. So what did it do? It killed the operator. It killed the operator because that person was keeping it from accomplishing its objective.

We trained the system—"Hey don’t kill the operator—that’s bad. You’re gonna lose points if you do that." So what does it start doing? It starts destroying the communication tower that the operator uses to communicate with the drone to stop it from killing the target.

This juicy tidbit about an AI system apparently deciding to kill its simulated operator began making the rounds on social media and was soon picked up by major publications like Vice and The Guardian (both of which have since updated their stories with retractions). But soon after the story broke, people on Twitter began to question its accuracy, with some saying that by "simulation," the military is referring to a hypothetical scenario, not necessarily a rules-based software simulation.

Today, Insider published a firm denial from the US Air Force, which said, "The Department of the Air Force has not conducted any such AI-drone simulations and remains committed to ethical and responsible use of AI technology. It appears the colonel's comments were taken out of context and were meant to be anecdotal."

Not long after, the Royal Aeronautical Society updated its conference recap with a correction from Hamilton:

Col. Hamilton admits he "misspoke" in his presentation at the Royal Aeronautical Society FCAS Summit, and the "rogue AI drone simulation" was a hypothetical "thought experiment" from outside the military, based on plausible scenarios and likely outcomes rather than an actual USAF real-world simulation, saying: "We've never run that experiment, nor would we need to in order to realize that this is a plausible outcome." He clarifies that the USAF has not tested any weaponized AI in this way (real or simulated) and says, "Despite this being a hypothetical example, this illustrates the real-world challenges posed by AI-powered capability and is why the Air Force is committed to the ethical development of AI."

The misunderstanding and quick viral spread of a "too good to be true" story show how easy it is to unintentionally spread erroneous news about "killer" AI, especially when it fits preconceived notions of AI malpractice.

Still, many experts called out the story as being too pat to begin with, and not just because of technical critiques explaining that a military AI system wouldn't necessarily work that way. As a BlueSky user named "kilgore trout" humorously put it, "I knew this story was bullsh*t because imagine the military coming out and saying an expensive weapons system they're working on sucks."

>

Broadband Usage Caps Now Drive MORE Broadband Usage, Study Finds } Karl Bode writing in TechDirt today

Usage caps were always a bullshit construct designed to flimsily justify greed, and big telecom companies (and their various allies) still can’t candidly admit it, decades later.

Broadband Usage Caps Now Drive MORE Broadband Usage, Study Finds

from the nickel-and-dime-you-to-death dept

"We’ve noted for years how broadband usage caps are a pointless, unnecessary cash grab by telecom monopolies looking to nickel-and-dime consumers who already pay too much for broadband.

The telecom industry’s original claim that the caps were necessary to “manage network congestion” were never true. Companies like Comcast used that claim for years to sell a gullible press on the need for the confusing, unpopular restrictions, but eventually even telecom giants stopped making the claim, after data and internal company leaks repeatedly showed it to be complete bullshit.

Interestingly, a recent study by OpenVault brought the subject to the forefront again, after it showed that capped customers now pretty routinely use more data than uncapped users:

Home internet customers who pay extra for exceeding certain data thresholds consumed, on average, 562.7 gigabytes of data from January – March vs. 555.5 for subscribers who pay one flat rate for unlimited data. 

In short, knowing they’re paying more for access has these users using their connection more, resulting in more network load than if you’d just left these users on unlimited data plans. Oh ironies of ironies.

Again, usage caps were never about “managing network congestion.” There was never any evidence that was true. But if you look at coverage about this new study from two different trade magazines, you’ll notice that the idea that caps meaningfully helped reduce network congestion is still held as established truth, even if its primary function was always just to make more money off of captive customers. . ."


Read more between-the-lines > TechDirt

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TEETERING Commercial Real Estate Market | Financial Times yesterday with 209 Comments

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US banks prepare for losses in rush for commercial property exit

Lenders prepare to offload debt at a discount even when borrowers are up to date on payments

Montage of bank logos and San Francisco skyline

Some lenders are willing to take losses on so-called performing property loans after multiple warnings that the asset class is the ‘next shoe to drop’ © FT montage/Unsplash

Some lenders are willing to take losses on so-called performing property loans after multiple warnings that the asset class is the ‘next shoe to drop’ © FT montage/Unsplash 

US banks prepare for losses in rush for commercial property exit on twitter (opens in a new window) US banks prepare for losses in rush for commercial property exit on facebook (opens in a new window) US banks prepare for losses in rush for commercial property exit on linkedin (opens in a new window) Stephen Gandel, Joshua Chaffin and Eric Platt in New York and Joshua Oliver in London YESTERDAY 

Some US banks are preparing to sell off property loans at a discount even when borrowers are up to date on repayments, a sign of their determination to reduce exposure to the teetering commercial real estate market. 

 The willingness of some lenders to take losses on so-called performing real estate loans follows multiple warnings that the asset class is the “next shoe to drop” after the recent turmoil in the US regional banking industry. “The fact that banks want to sell loans is coming up in a lot of conversations,” said Chad Littell, an analyst at CoStar, a research company focused on commercial real estate. “I am hearing more about it than any time in the past decade.”

  •  HSBC USA is in the process of selling off hundreds of millions of dollars of commercial real estate loans, potentially at a discount, as part of an effort to wind down direct lending to US property developers, according to three people familiar with the matter. 
  •  Meanwhile, PacWest last month sold $2.6bn of construction loans at a loss. And a clutch of other banks are making it easier to execute similar sales in the future by changing the way they account for commercial real estate debt. 

 Typically, banks are reluctant to accept losses on big blocks of loans that will retain their full value as long as borrowers make repayments on time. But some are being convinced to take the plunge amid fears of an increase in delinquencies — especially on debt secured against office properties that have experienced falling demand due to the enduring popularity of working from home. 

 Meanwhile, a slowdown in demand for commercial mortgage-backed securities has left banks of all sizes holding on to more property debt than they or regulators would like. 

  •  While the practice of offloading performing loans is not as prevalent as it was during the 2008 crisis, many market participants expect the volume of deals to increase this year and next. 
  •  As banks prepare to close the second quarter “they are super focused on keeping a clean loan book”, said David Aviram, a principal at Maverick Real Estate Partners, a private fund that specialises in commercial real estate loans. “The banks don’t want to raise the concerns of regulators or investors.” 
  •  The moves by banks to offload the loans come as executives and regulators raise alarm bells over the health of the commercial real estate sector. 
  •  Wells Fargo chief executive Charlie Scharf last week told analysts and investors that the bank, which has $142bn in commercial real estate loans outstanding, is managing its exposure to the area. “We will see losses, no question about it,” said Scharf. 
  •  Meanwhile, Martin Gruenberg, chair of the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, last week warned that real estate loans — especially those backed by offices — face challenges if demand remains weak and “values continue to soften”. “These will be matters of ongoing supervisory attention by the FDIC,” he added. 
  •  Other banks are changing the way they account for loans by switching their designation to “available for sale” from “hold to maturity”, a move that makes it easier to offload the debt down the line. 
  • Citizens, which has been reducing its commercial property lending, more than doubled its stock of loans available for sale to $1.8bn during the first quarter. Like many other banks, it does not disclose what percentage of those loans are to commercial real estate borrowers. 
  •  Customers Bancorp, based in suburban Philadelphia, cut its commercial real estate lending by nearly $25mn in the first quarter. It also recategorised $16mn of these loans as “held for sale”, up from zero in the previous quarter. One loan broker said it was preparing to bring several deals to market in the coming weeks and was experiencing the largest amount of activity in three years. The discounts applied to sales of performing loans outside of the office sector remain relatively modest and are driven partly by interest rate rises. 
  • Real estate investment group Kennedy-Wilson, for instance, agreed to pay $2.4bn, or 92 cents on the dollar, for the block of PacWest loans that had an aggregate principal value of $2.6bn. Shares of PacWest surged nearly 20 per cent after it announced the transaction. “We’re getting more calls . . . as a result of what PacWest was able to execute with Kennedy-Wilson,” one real estate credit investor said. 

“All the regional banks are looking at that stock price and saying ‘the market really liked that and we should execute something similar’.” 

  • According to two of the people briefed on the HSBC sales process, the loans are fetching bids that would price the loans in the mid-90s as a percentage of their face value — meaning the bank would have to take a loss of as much as 5 per cent. 

 HSBC has not decided whether it is willing take a loss on the sale or how large one might be, according to another person familiar with the process. HSBC declined to comment. Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2023. All rights reserved. Reuse this content(opens in new window)CommentsJump to comments section 

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