FOCUS WATCH
Do Americans think China will overtake the US? The results of a survey are in
Thinking a little longer
A recent national poll by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, released in January 2026, reveals that a significant majority of Americans believe China will eventually overtake theUnited States.
Key findings from the survey include:
- Broad Expectations: Nearly three-quarters (roughly 74%) of Americans expect China to overtake the U.S. in global power and influence at some point, if it hasn't already.
- Imminent Shift: About 47% of respondents believe China has already surpassed the U.S. or will do so within the next five years.
- Current Standing: Nearly two-thirds of Americans believe China’s current power already equals or exceeds that of the United States.
- Technological Lead: Technology is seen as China's primary advantage, with 63% of Americans stating that China outperforms the U.S. in this sector.
- Personal Impact: Interestingly, 62% of respondents said they believe their personal lives would not get worse if China became more powerful than the U.S..
- Generational & Partisan Gaps:
- Age: Older Americans (65+) are much more concerned about this shift, with 52% fearing their lives would worsen, compared to only 27% of those aged 18–29.
- Party: Republicans are 18 percentage points more likely than Democrats to believe their lives would worsen if China became the dominant global power.
While most Americans believe the U.S. still maintains a military edge, more than half (54%) feel that overall American global influence is diminishing.
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