Friday, December 30, 2022

Roubini: Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini was nicknamed “Dr. Doom,” until his prediction of the 2008 housing crisis and Great Recession came true

 


The world is walking into a long and ugly recession: Roubini. Will India be an exception?

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Video for Roubini
Duration: 40:42
Posted: 22 hours ago
 
 
2 days ago · Economist Nouriel Roubini has warned the Federal Reserve will have to trigger a recession. The US central bank has hiked interest rates from near zero to 4.5% ...


'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini Has a Gloomy View for 2023

Dan Weil
3 - 4 minutes

'Nouriel Roubini, chief economist at Atlas Capital, made his name calling the financial crisis of 2007-09, earning the moniker of Dr. Doom.

He finds a lot to be gloomy about now too. He sees a global economic and financial crisis on the horizon, sparked by a debt bubble and accompanied by stagflation.

Here are some of the most colorful quotes from his writings and comments this year.

Project Syndicate, December 2

“Center-right governments have persistently cut taxes without also cutting spending, while center-left governments have spent generously on social programs that aren’t fully funded with sufficient higher taxes.”

✓ “There will be a hard landing – a deep, protracted recession – on top of a severe financial crisis. As asset bubbles burst, debt-servicing ratios spike, and inflation-adjusted incomes fall across households, corporations, and governments, the economic crisis and the financial crash will feed on each other.”

✓ “Once the inflation genie gets out of the bottle – which is what will happen when central banks abandon the fight [i.e. interest-rate increases] in the face of the looming economic and financial crash – nominal and real borrowing costs will surge. The mother of all stagflationary debt crises can be postponed, not avoided.”


 

Twitter, November 19.  https://twitter.com/Nouriel/status/1593841338981974016

“Crypto[currencies] = Concealed, Corrupt, Criminals, Crooks, Con Men, Carnival-barkers, Cult, Crappy, @cz_binance = melting down pyramid scheme = collapsing Ponzi scheme = Mother Of All Bank Runs = collapsing House of Cards = Suckers’ Shitcoins Shitshow.”


Project Syndicate, November 15

“Central banks are in both a stagflation trap and a debt trap. Amid negative aggregate supply shocks that reduce growth and increase inflation, they are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. If they increase interest rates enough to bring inflation down to 2%, they will cause a severe economic hard landing. And if they don’t – attempting instead to protect growth and jobs – they will be left increasingly far behind the curve, leading to a de-anchoring of inflation expectations and a wage-price spiral.”

Project Syndicate, October 3

“Most forward-looking indicators of economic activity in advanced economies point to a sharp slowdown that will grow even worse with monetary-policy tightening. A hard landing by year’s end should be regarded as the baseline scenario.”

“There are early signs that the Great Moderation has given way to the Great Stagflation, which will be characterized by instability and a confluence of slow-motion negative supply shocks.”

“U.S. and global equities have not yet fully priced in even a mild and short hard landing. Equities will fall by about 30% in a mild recession, and by 40% or more in the severe stagflationary debt crisis that I have predicted for the global economy.… The crisis is here.”

Project Syndicate, June 29

“Today, we face supply shocks in a context of much higher debt levels, implying that we are heading for a combination of 1970s-style stagflation and 2008-style debt crises – that is, a stagflationary debt crisis.”

“Though the current global situation confronts us with many questions, there is no real riddle to solve. Things will get much worse before they get better.”" 

READ MORE 

Video for Roubini
Duration: 59:54
Posted: Dec 16, 2022

www.bloomberg.com

Cathie Wood’s Grim 2022 Is Almost Over. Next Year Also Looks Bad

Emily Graffeo
1 minute

  • Analysts have slashed earnings estimates for ARKK’s top stocks

  • Despite dismal returns, ARKK has seen inflows of $1.3 billion

"Cathie Wood’s worst-ever year wasn’t even over before the clouds started to gather for 2023.

For the past few weeks, Wall Street has been slashing earnings expectations for some of the biggest holdings of her flagship $5.8 billion ARK Innovation ETF (ticker ARKK) — signaling more pain ahead for a strategy that was hammered throughout 2022 by the most aggressive Federal Reserve tightening in decades." 

ARIZONA: A grim reminder that COVID-19 is still present and taking lives

 





Safe and highly effective COVID-19 protection is available, so get boosted for the holidays
Don Herrington
3 - 4 minutes

COVID-19 deaths remain well below what Arizona has seen during major surges, but the 71 deaths added in today’s weekly dashboard update are a grim reminder that COVID-19 is still present and taking lives. 

I mention this to help highlight some very positive news also added to our dashboard: During October, Arizonans who had received the updated Omicron booster were 20 times less likely than unvaccinated individuals to be hospitalized from COVID-19 and 38 times less likely to die from COVID-19. Those who were vaccinated but hadn’t gotten the updated booster were 7.6 times less likely to be hospitalized and 10 times less likely to die than unvaccinated individuals. 

This reinforces the importance of the updated COVID-19 booster for everyone 5 years and older, and especially for older individuals whose immune systems tend to have weakened with age. More than 80% of COVID-19 deaths during the past six months have been among those 65 and older, while more than 90% of COVID-19 deaths during that time have been among those 55 and older. Every age range has seen deaths, however, and everyone remains vulnerable to long COVID.

With holiday gatherings underway and holiday travel beginning soon, please take advantage of this safe and highly effective protection by getting the new booster at least two months after your last COVID-19 vaccine dose. If you have had COVID-19, you should still get this booster at least three months after your symptoms end. 

You can get the COVID-19 booster at the same time as your seasonal influenza vaccine, doubling the value of the visit. It’s a great time to do this, as it takes at least two weeks to build antibody protection after vaccination. You’ll find convenient providers of COVID-19 and influenza vaccine at vaccines.gov

Don Herrington, Interim Director, has been with ADHS since 2000. During this time he has served as the State’s Food Safety Manager, the Office Chief of Environmental Health, Bureau Chief of Epidemiology and Disease Control Services, Acting Assistant Director for Public Health Preparedness, Assistant Director for Public Health Preparedness. Herrington is currently the department’s Deputy Director for Planning and Operations. In this role he oversees policy development, hiring professional and support staff and the department’s budget. During his time in public health, Herrington has served on numerous councils, commissions and committees on behalf of the Director of ADHS, including Chair of the Arizona Sanitarians’ Council, Chair of the Arizona Infection Prevention and Control Advisory Committee, and as one of five voting members of the Arizona Emergency Response Commission.

 

X

YES, Manufacturing requires water, and lots of it

 


Companies like Gradiant, Via Separations, VulcanForms, and LiquiGlide demonstrate that an expansion in manufacturing industries does not need to come at a steep environmental cost. It is possible for manufacturing to be scaled up in a sustainable way...

news.mit.edu

Manufacturing a cleaner future 



Mary Beth Gallagher | Department of Mechanical Engineering
15 - 19 minutes

Manufacturing had a big summer. The CHIPS and Science Act, signed into law in August, represents a massive investment in U.S. domestic manufacturing. The act aims to drastically expand the U.S. semiconductor industry, strengthen supply chains, and invest in R&D for new technological breakthroughs. According to John Hart, professor of mechanical engineering and director of the Laboratory for Manufacturing and Productivity at MIT, the CHIPS Act is just the latest example of significantly increased interest in manufacturing in recent years.

“You have multiple forces working together: reflections from the pandemic’s impact on supply chains, the geopolitical situation around the world, and the urgency and importance of sustainability,” says Hart. “This has now aligned incentives among government, industry, and the investment community to accelerate innovation in manufacturing and industrial technology.”

Hand-in-hand with this increased focus on manufacturing is a need to prioritize sustainability.

Roughly one-quarter of greenhouse gas emissions came from industry and manufacturing in 2020. Factories and plants can also deplete local water reserves and generate vast amounts of waste, some of which can be toxic.

To address these issues and drive the transition to a low-carbon economy, new products and industrial processes must be developed alongside sustainable manufacturing technologies. Hart sees mechanical engineers as playing a crucial role in this transition.

“Mechanical engineers can uniquely solve critical problems that require next-generation hardware technologies, and know how to bring their solutions to scale,” says Hart.

Several fast-growing companies founded by faculty and alumni from MIT’s Department of Mechanical Engineering offer solutions for manufacturing’s environmental problem, paving the path for a more sustainable future.

Gradiant: Cleantech water solutions

Manufacturing requires water, and lots of it. A medium-sized semiconductor fabrication plant uses upward of 10 million gallons of water a day. In a world increasingly plagued by droughts, this dependence on water poses a major challenge.

Gradiant offers a solution to this water problem. Co-founded by Anurag Bajpayee SM ’08, PhD ’12 and Prakash Govindan PhD ’12, the company is a pioneer in sustainable — or “cleantech” — water projects.

As doctoral students in the Rohsenow Kendall Heat Transfer Laboratory, Bajpayee and Govindan shared a pragmatism and penchant for action. They both worked on desalination research — Bajpayee with Professor Gang Chen and Govindan with Professor John Lienhard.

Inspired by a childhood spent during a severe drought in Chennai, India, Govindan developed for his PhD a humidification-dehumidification technology that mimicked natural rainfall cycles. It was with this piece of technology, which they named Carrier Gas Extraction (CGE), that the duo founded Gradiant in 2013.

The key to CGE lies in a proprietary algorithm that accounts for variability in the quality and quantity in wastewater feed. At the heart of the algorithm is a nondimensional number, which Govindan proposes one day be called the “Lienhard Number,” after his doctoral advisor.

“When the water quality varies in the system, our technology automatically sends a signal to motors within the plant to adjust the flow rates to bring back the nondimensional number to a value of one. Once it’s brought back to a value of one, you’re running in optimal condition,” explains Govindan, who serves as chief operating officer of Gradiant.

This system can treat and clean the wastewater produced by a manufacturing plant for reuse, ultimately conserving millions of gallons of water each year.

As the company has grown, the Gradiant team has added new technologies to their arsenal, including Selective Contaminant Extraction, a cost-efficient method that removes only specific contaminants, and a brine-concentration method called Counter-Flow Reverse Osmosis. They now offer a full technology stack of water and wastewater treatment solutions to clients in industries including pharmaceuticals, energy, mining, food and beverage, and the ever-growing semiconductor industry.

“We are an end-to-end water solutions provider. We have a portfolio of proprietary technologies and will pick and choose from our ‘quiver’ depending on a customer’s needs,” says Bajpayee, who serves as CEO of Gradiant. “Customers look at us as their water partner. We can take care of their water problem end-to-end so they can focus on their core business.”

Gradiant has seen explosive growth over the past decade. With 450 water and wastewater treatment plants built to date, they treat the equivalent of 5 million households’ worth of water each day. Recent acquisitions saw their total employees rise to above 500.

The diversity of Gradiant’s solutions is reflected in their clients, who include Pfizer, AB InBev, and Coca-Cola. They also count semiconductor giants like Micron Technology, GlobalFoundries, Intel, and TSMC among their customers.

“Over the last few years, we have really developed our capabilities and reputation serving semiconductor wastewater and semiconductor ultrapure water,” says Bajpayee.

Semiconductor manufacturers require ultrapure water for fabrication. Unlike drinking water, which has a total dissolved solids range in the parts per million, water used to manufacture microchips has a range in the parts per billion or quadrillion.

Currently, the average recycling rate at semiconductor fabrication plants — or fabs — in Singapore is only 43 percent. Using Gradiant’s technologies, these fabs can recycle 98-99 percent of the 10 million gallons of water they require daily. This reused water is pure enough to be put back into the manufacturing process.

“What we’ve done is eliminated the discharge of this contaminated water and nearly eliminated the dependence of the semiconductor fab on the public water supply,” adds Bajpayee.

With new regulations being introduced, pressure is increasing for fabs to improve their water use, making sustainability even more important to brand owners and their stakeholders.

As the domestic semiconductor industry expands in light of the CHIPS and Science Act, Gradiant sees an opportunity to bring their semiconductor water treatment technologies to more factories in the United States.

Via Separations: Efficient chemical filtration

Like Bajpayee and Govindan, Shreya Dave ’09, SM ’12, PhD ’16 focused on desalination for her doctoral thesis. Under the guidance of her advisor Jeffrey Grossman, professor of materials science and engineering, Dave built a membrane that could enable more efficient and cheaper desalination.

A thorough cost and market analysis brought Dave to the conclusion that the desalination membrane she developed would not make it to commercialization.

“The current technologies are just really good at what they do. They’re low-cost, mass produced, and they worked. There was no room in the market for our technology,” says Dave.

Shortly after defending her thesis, she read a commentary article in the journal Nature that changed everything. The article outlined a problem. Chemical separations that are central to many manufacturing processes require a huge amount of energy. Industry needed more efficient and cheaper membranes. Dave thought she might have a solution.

After determining there was an economic opportunity, Dave, Grossman, and Brent Keller PhD ’16 founded Via Separations in 2017. Shortly thereafter, they were chosen as one of the first companies to receive funding from MIT’s venture firm, The Engine.

Currently, industrial filtration is done by heating chemicals at very high temperatures to separate compounds. Dave likens it to making pasta by boiling all of the water off until it evaporates and all you are left with is the pasta noodles. In manufacturing, this method of chemical separation is extremely energy-intensive and inefficient.

Via Separations has created the chemical equivalent of a “pasta strainer.” Rather than using heat to separate, their membranes “strain” chemical compounds. This method of chemical filtration uses 90 percent less energy than standard methods.

While most membranes are made of polymers, Via Separations’ membranes are made with graphene oxide, which can withstand high temperatures and harsh conditions. The membrane is calibrated to the customer’s needs by altering the pore size and tuning the surface chemistry.

Currently, Dave and her team are focusing on the pulp and paper industry as their beachhead market. They have developed a system that makes the recovery of a substance known as “black liquor” more energy efficient.

“When tree becomes paper, only one-third of the biomass is used for the paper. Currently the most valuable use for the remaining two-thirds not needed for paper is to take it from a pretty dilute stream to a pretty concentrated stream using evaporators by boiling off the water,” says Dave.

This black liquor is then burned. Most of the resulting energy is used to power the filtration process.

“This closed-loop system accounts for an enormous amount of energy consumption in the U.S. We can make that process 84 percent more efficient by putting the ‘pasta strainer’ in front of the boiler,” adds Dave.

VulcanForms: Additive manufacturing at industrial scale

The first semester John Hart taught at MIT was a fruitful one. He taught a course on 3D printing, broadly known as additive manufacturing (AM). While it wasn’t his main research focus at the time, he found the topic fascinating. So did many of the students in the class, including Martin Feldmann MEng ’14.

After graduating with his MEng in advanced manufacturing, Feldmann joined Hart’s research group full time. There, they bonded over their shared interest in AM. They saw an opportunity to innovate with an established metal AM technology, known as laser powder bed fusion, and came up with a concept to realize metal AM at an industrial scale.

The pair co-founded VulcanForms in 2015.

“We have developed a machine architecture for metal AM that can build parts with exceptional quality and productivity,” says Hart. “And, we have integrated our machines in a fully digital production system, combining AM, postprocessing, and precision machining.”

Unlike other companies that sell 3D printers for others to produce parts, VulcanForms makes and sells parts for their customers using their fleet of industrial machines. VulcanForms has grown to nearly 400 employees. Last year, the team opened their first production factory, known as “VulcanOne,” in Devens, Massachusetts.

The quality and precision with which VulcanForms produces parts is critical for products like medical implants, heat exchangers, and aircraft engines. Their machines can print layers of metal thinner than a human hair.

“We’re producing components that are difficult, or in some cases impossible to manufacture otherwise,” adds Hart, who sits on the company’s board of directors.

The technologies developed at VulcanForms may help lead to a more sustainable way to manufacture parts and products, both directly through the additive process and indirectly through more efficient, agile supply chains.

One way that VulcanForms, and AM in general, promotes sustainability is through material savings.

Many of the materials VulcanForms uses, such as titanium alloys, require a great deal of energy to produce. When titanium parts are 3D-printed, substantially less of the material is used than in a traditional machining process. This material efficiency is where Hart sees AM making a large impact in terms of energy savings.

Hart also points out that AM can accelerate innovation in clean energy technologies, ranging from more efficient jet engines to future fusion reactors.

“Companies seeking to de-risk and scale clean energy technologies require know-how and access to advanced manufacturing capability, and industrial additive manufacturing is transformative in this regard,” Hart adds.

LiquiGlide: Reducing waste by removing friction

There is an unlikely culprit when it comes to waste in manufacturing and consumer products: friction. Kripa Varanasi, professor of mechanical engineering, and the team at LiquiGlide are on a mission to create a frictionless future, and substantially reduce waste in the process.

Founded in 2012 by Varanasi and alum David Smith SM ’11, LiquiGlide designs custom coatings that enable liquids to “glide” on surfaces. Every last drop of a product can be used, whether it’s being squeezed out of a tube of toothpaste or drained from a 500-liter tank at a manufacturing plant. Making containers frictionless substantially minimizes wasted product, and eliminates the need to clean a container before recycling or reusing.

Since launching, the company has found great success in consumer products. Customer Colgate utilized LiquiGlide’s technologies in the design of the Colgate Elixir toothpaste bottle, which has been honored with several industry awards for design. In a collaboration with world- renowned designer Yves Béhar, LiquiGlide is applying their technology to beauty and personal care product packaging. Meanwhile, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has granted them a Device Master Filing, opening up opportunities for the technology to be used in medical devices, drug delivery, and biopharmaceuticals.

In 2016, the company developed a system to make manufacturing containers frictionless. Called CleanTanX, the technology is used to treat the surfaces of tanks, funnels, and hoppers, preventing materials from sticking to the side. The system can reduce material waste by up to 99 percent.

“This could really change the game. It saves wasted product, reduces wastewater generated from cleaning tanks, and can help make the manufacturing process zero-waste,” says Varanasi, who serves as chair at LiquiGlide.

LiquiGlide works by creating a coating made of a textured solid and liquid lubricant on the container surface. When applied to a container, the lubricant remains infused within the texture. Capillary forces stabilize and allow the liquid to spread on the surface, creating a continuously lubricated surface that any viscous material can slide right down. The company uses a thermodynamic algorithm to determine the combinations of safe solids and liquids depending on the product, whether it’s toothpaste or paint.

The company has built a robotic spraying system that can treat large vats and tanks at manufacturing plants on site. In addition to saving companies millions of dollars in wasted product, LiquiGlide drastically reduces the amount of water needed to regularly clean these containers, which normally have product stuck to the sides.

“Normally when you empty everything out of a tank, you still have residue that needs to be cleaned with a tremendous amount of water. In agrochemicals, for example, there are strict regulations about how to deal with the resulting wastewater, which is toxic. All of that can be eliminated with LiquiGlide,” says Varanasi.

While the closure of many manufacturing facilities early in the pandemic slowed down the rollout of CleanTanX pilots at plants, things have picked up in recent months. As manufacturing ramps up both globally and domestically, Varanasi sees a growing need for LiquiGlide’s technologies, especially for liquids like semiconductor slurry.

Companies like Gradiant, Via Separations, VulcanForms, and LiquiGlide demonstrate that an expansion in manufacturing industries does not need to come at a steep environmental cost. It is possible for manufacturing to be scaled up in a sustainable way.

“Manufacturing has always been the backbone of what we do as mechanical engineers. At MIT in particular, there is always a drive to make manufacturing sustainable,” says Evelyn Wang, Ford Professor of Engineering and former head of the Department of Mechanical Engineering. “It’s amazing to see how startups that have an origin in our department are looking at every aspect of the manufacturing process and figuring out how to improve it for the health of our planet.”

As legislation like the CHIPS and Science Act fuels growth in manufacturing, there will be an increased need for startups and companies that develop solutions to mitigate the environmental impact, bringing us closer to a more sustainable future.

Any biometric database is a ticking time bomb. . . Secure Electronic Enrollment Kit, or SEEK II

 WHOA! ✓ Any biometric database is a ticking time bomb. When the Taliban captured the biometric devices, concerns were raised that the devices could be used to identify former local collaborators. Human Rights First thus published a guide to evading the misuse of biometric data.

✓✓✓✓✓✓ Life-threatening irresponsibility 

"The irresponsible handling of this high-risk technology is unbelievable," said Matthias Marx, who led the CCC research group. The consequences are life-threatening for the many people in Afghanistan who were abandoned by the western forces. "It is inconceivable to us that the manufacturer and former military users do not care that used devices with sensitive data are being hawked online," Marx continued.

And yet all of this was predictable, because biometric databases cannot be effectively or permanently secured against illegitimate interests. What happened in Afghanistan is just a foretaste of the many biometric databases that will fall into the wrong hands in the future.

Backstory: Biometric census of the Afghan population

The entire population of Afghanistan was biometrically catalogued -- supported by the German Bundeswehr. The motivation for this systematic collection of fingerprints, irises, faces and DNA was to enable the distinction between good and bad people. Programs such as the Automated Biometric Identification System (ABIS) were designed to identify known criminals, as well as local collaborators or Afghan security forces, at any time.

✓ Any biometric database is a ticking time bomb. When the Taliban captured the biometric devices, concerns were raised that the devices could be used to identify former local collaborators. Human Rights First thus published a guide to evading the misuse of biometric data.

✓ The risk was well known to all

There is no escape from biometric surveillance. We cannot simply change our biometric data. This danger was well known those in charge. Back in 2007, a member of the U.S. military warned of a similar biometric database in Iraq: "This database... becomes a hit list if it gets in the wrong hands."

✓✓ The data is unprotected

Allegedly, access to the biometrics database should not be possible without further technology. But even if that were the case, of course, the Taliban could still simply use the devices. Unfortunately, our research shows that all data on the mobile biometric devices is completely unprotected. We were able to read, copy and analyze them without any difficulty.

✓ ✓✓ Used devices in online auctions

Alarmed by news reports about biometric devices in the Taliban's hands, Matthias Marx, snoopy, starbug, md and other CCC members started to gather information about these devices. While doing so, they came across several offers at an online auction house. They were able to acquire a total of

  • four devices of type SEEK II (Secure Electronic Enrollment Kit) and
  • two devices of type HIIDE 5 (Handheld Interagency Identity Detection Equipment).

The devices were examined forensically.

From a technical perspective, the analyses were downright boring: All storage mediums were unencrypted. A well-documented standard password was the only thing needed to gain access. Also, the database was a standard database with standard data formats. It was fully exported with little effort.

✓✓✓✓ sensitive biometric data of 2,632 individuals

The extracted data was all the more impressive: The various devices shopped online contained names and biometric data of two U.S. military personnel, GPS coordinates of past deployment locations, and a massive biometrics database with names, fingerprints, iris scans and photos of 2,632 people. The device containing this database had last been used somewhere between Kabul and Kandahar in mid-2012.

✓✓ ✓✓✓ Lack of risk awareness among manufacturers, US and German military

The CCC then informed the SEEK device's manufacturer, Crossmatch Technologies (now: HID Global), and two known users of the devices, the US Department of Defense and the German Bundeswehr, about the vulnerability. The responsible parties were also informed that used devices with highly sensitive data can easily be ordered on the Internet. However, no one seems to care about the data leak:

We received an acknowledgement of receipt from the Bundeswehr, the Department of Defense kindly referred us to the manufacturer, and the manufacturer did nothing.

Two and a half months after our report, we were able to order another biometric device online.

✓✓✓✓✓✓ Life-threatening irresponsibility

"The irresponsible handling of this high-risk technology is unbelievable," said Matthias Marx, who led the CCC research group. The consequences are life-threatening for the many people in Afghanistan who were abandoned by the western forces. "It is inconceivable to us that the manufacturer and former military users do not care that used devices with sensitive data are being hawked online," Marx continued.

And yet all of this was predictable, because biometric databases cannot be effectively or permanently secured against illegitimate interests. What happened in Afghanistan is just a foretaste of the many biometric databases that will fall into the wrong hands in the future.

It is always a bad idea to centrally collect such data in bulk.


We have a few more questions...

www.nytimes.com

For Sale on eBay: A Military Database of Fingerprints and Iris Scans

Kashmir Hill, John Ismay, Christopher F. Schuetze, Aaron Krolik
11 - 13 minutes

German security researchers studying biometric capture devices popular with the U.S. military got more than they expected for $68 on eBay.

An open black case containing a small black machine and other components held in place by black foam.
A Secure Electronic Enrollment Kit, or SEEK II, purchased by German researchers on eBay.Credit...Andreas Meichsner for The New York Times

"The shoebox-shaped device, designed to capture fingerprints and perform iris scans, was listed on eBay for $149.95. A German security researcher, Matthias Marx, successfully offered $68, and when it arrived at his home in Hamburg in August, the rugged, hand-held machine contained more than what was promised in the listing.

The device’s memory card held the names, nationalities, photographs, fingerprints and iris scans of 2,632 people.

Most people in the database, which was reviewed by The New York Times, were from Afghanistan and Iraq. Many were known terrorists and wanted individuals, but others appeared to be people who had worked with the U.S. government or simply been stopped at checkpoints. Metadata on the device, called a Secure Electronic Enrollment Kit, or SEEK II, revealed that it had last been used in the summer of 2012 near Kandahar, Afghanistan.

The device — a relic of the vast biometric collection system the Pentagon built in the years after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks — is a physical reminder that although the United States has moved on from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the tools built to fight them and the information they held live on in ways unintended by their creators.

Exactly how the device ended up going from the battlefields in Asia to an online auction site is unclear. But the data, which offers detailed descriptions of individuals in addition to their photograph and biometric data, could be enough to target people who were previously unknown to have worked with U.S. military forces should the information fall into the wrong hands.

For those reasons, Mr. Marx would not place the information online or share it in an electronic format, but he did allow a Times reporter in Germany to see the data in person alongside him.

“Because we have not reviewed the information contained on the devices, the department is not able to confirm the authenticity of the alleged data or otherwise comment on it,” Brig. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder, the Defense Department’s press secretary, said in a statement. “The department requests that any devices thought to contain personally identifiable information be returned for further analysis.”

He provided an address for the military’s biometrics program manager at Fort Belvoir in Virginia where the devices could be sent.

The biometric data on the SEEK II was collected at detainment facilities, on patrols, during screenings of local hires and after the explosion of an improvised bomb. Around the time when the device was last used in Afghanistan, the American war effort there was winding down. Osama bin Laden had been killed in Pakistan a year earlier — his identity reportedly confirmed using facial recognition technology.

One of the main concerns of military leaders at that time was a rash of shootings in which Afghan soldiers and police turned their guns on American troops. They hoped that the biometric enrollment program would help identify any possible Taliban agents inside their own bases.

A 2011 “commander’s guide to biometrics in Afghanistan” described face, fingerprint and iris scans as a “relatively new” but “decisive battlefield capability” that “effectively identifies insurgents, verifies local and third-country nationals accessing our bases and facilities, and links people to events.”

The SEEK II has a tiny screen, a miniature physical keyboard and an almost comically small mouse pad. A thumbprint reader is protected by a hinged plastic lid at the bottom of the device. Like an ancient Polaroid camera, the machine unfolds to allow iris scans and to take photos. Mr. Marx used the SEEK II on himself; when he turned it off, a message popped up, asking to connect to a U.S. Special Operations Command server to upload the new “collected biometrics.”

Over the past year, Mr. Marx and a small group of researchers at the Chaos Computer Club, a European hacker association, bought six biometric capture devices on eBay, most for less than 200 euros, planning to analyze them to find any vulnerabilities or design flaws. They were motivated by concerns raised last year that the Taliban had seized such devices after the U.S. evacuation from Afghanistan. The group of researchers wanted to understand whether the Taliban could have gotten biometric data about people who had assisted the United States from the devices, putting them at risk.

Finding so much information sitting unencrypted and easily accessible shocked them.

“It was disturbing that they didn’t even try to protect the data,” Mr. Marx said, referring to the U.S. military. “They didn’t care about the risk, or they ignored the risk.” 

Image

Matthias Marx is a security researcher at the Chaos Computer Club, a European hacker association.Credit...Andreas Meichsner for The New York Times

Stewart Baker, a Washington lawyer and former national security official, said that biometric scanning was a valuable tool in war zones but that the collected data needed to be kept under control. He predicted that the data breach would “make a lot of people who helped the U.S. and are still in Afghanistan really uncomfortable.”

“This should not have happened,” Mr. Baker said. “It is a disaster for the people whose data is exposed. In the worst cases, the consequences could be fatal.”


What we consider before using anonymous sources. Do the sources know the information? What’s their motivation for telling us? Have they proved reliable in the past? Can we corroborate the information? Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source.

Of the six devices the researchers bought on eBay — four SEEKs and two HIIDEs, for Handheld Interagency Identity Detection Equipment — two of the SEEK II devices had sensitive data on them. The second SEEK II, with location metadata showing it was last used in Jordan in 2013, appeared to contain the fingerprints and iris scans of a small group of U.S. service members.

When reached by The Times, one American whose biometric scan was found on the device confirmed that the data was likely his. He previously served as a Marine intelligence specialist and said his data, and that of any other American found on these devices, was most likely collected during a military training course. The man, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he still works in the intelligence field and was not authorized to speak publicly, asked that his biometric file be deleted.

Military officials said the only reason these devices would have data on Americans would be their use during training sessions, a common practice to prepare for employing them in the field.

According to the Defense Logistics Agency, which handles the disposal of millions of dollars of excess Pentagon matériel each year, devices like the SEEK II and the HIIDE never should have made it to the open market — much less an online auction site like eBay. Instead, all biometric collection gear is supposed to be destroyed on site when no longer needed by military personnel, as are other electronic devices that once held sensitive operational information.

How eBay sellers obtained these devices is unclear. The device with the 2,632 profiles was sold by Rhino Trade, a surplus equipment company in Texas. The company’s treasurer, David Mendez, said it had bought the SEEK II at an auction of government equipment and did not realize a decommissioned military device would have sensitive data on it.

“I hope we didn’t do anything wrong,” he said.

The SEEK II with the American troops’ information came from Tech-Mart, an eBay seller in Ohio. Tech-Mart’s owner, Ayman Arafa, declined to say how he had acquired it, or two other devices he sold to the researchers.

An eBay spokesman said company policy prohibited the listing of electronic devices that contained personally identifiable information. “Listings that violate this policy will be removed, and users may face actions up to, and including, a permanent suspension of their account,” the spokesman said.

The sensitive data on the devices was stored on memory cards. If the cards had been removed and destroyed, this data would not have been exposed.

“The irresponsible handling of this high-risk technology is unbelievable,” Mr. Marx said. “It is incomprehensible to us that the manufacturer and former military users do not care that used devices with sensitive data are being hawked online.”

The Times reviewed online manuals and documentation for the HIIDE and SEEK II devices and found that they were designed to search biometric files kept on government servers. However, they are able to store thousands of biometric records for use in an environment with limited internet connectivity, which may help explain why these biometric records were still on these devices.

Image

Mr. Marx used the SEEK II to scan his fingerprint.Credit...Andreas Meichsner for The New York Times

Ella Jakubowska, a policy adviser on biometric information at European Digital Rights, a privacy advocacy group, said the military should inform all the people whose data had been exposed.

“It doesn’t matter that it’s from a decade ago,” she said. “One of the key points that we’re always trying to raise about biometric data and why it’s so sensitive is because it can identify you forever.”

Ms. Jakubowska said it did not matter if some in the database had committed crimes or were on watchlists. “You are still a human, and it’s a marker of democratic societies that we still treat people, even criminals, with dignity, and with respect for their human rights,” she said.

Mr. Marx alerted the Department of Defense about the unprotected data, as well as the manufacturer of the device, HID Global. Asked for comment, HID Global said in a statement that it did not “share details about our customers or specific product implementations.”

“The configuration, management, protection, storage and regularity of deletion of data is the responsibility of the organization using HID-manufactured devices,” the company said.

Belkis Wille, a researcher at Human Rights Watch who has written about the use of biometrics in Afghanistan, told the German public broadcaster Bayerischer Rundfunk that people who had worked with the U.S. government and were affected by the breach should be given the opportunity to leave Afghanistan and apply for asylum.

“Even a former policeman who is in hiding, who has changed their name, because they don’t want the Taliban to capture them isn’t safe anymore,” she told Bayerischer Rundfunk. “This system means that they really have no way to protect themselves.”

Mr. Marx planned to present his findings at an event for hackers in Berlin on Tuesday. After the analysis of the biometric devices is complete, he and his fellow researchers plan to delete the personally identifiable data." READ MORE

29 December 2022

HIIDE HARDWARE: Oops! Thanks for the memories, huh?

No doubt one of those "cautionary tales" .   The devices, known as Handheld Interagency Identity Detection Equipment (HIIDE), are designed to guarantee accurate identification of a person, even if their appearance has dramatically changed. 




JUST HOW EASY Is it to eject/insert a memory card? (Illustration How to insert and eject a memory card) 

 

CCC captures U.S. military biometrics database

2022-12-27 06:20:48, linus

 


 

The U.S. military used biometric devices en masse to capture people in Afghanistan. Some devices were left behind during the hasty withdrawal of NATO troops. CCC researchers found large amounts of biometric and other personal data when analyzing such devices. In the wrong hands, this data is life-threatening for people in Afghanistan and Iraq.

The biometric devices were used to identify individuals, e. g. at checkpoints when screening for wanted persons, or to control access by local collaborators. On used U.S. military equipment, we discovered, among other things, an unprotected biometrics database containing names, fingerprints, iris scans, and photographs of more than 2,600 Afghans and Iraqis.

Backstory: Biometric census of the Afghan population

The entire population of Afghanistan was biometrically catalogued -- supported by the German Bundeswehr. The motivation for this systematic collection of fingerprints, irises, faces and DNA was to enable the distinction between good and bad people. Programs such as the Automated Biometric Identification System (ABIS) were designed to identify known criminals, as well as local collaborators or Afghan security forces, at any time.

✓ Any biometric database is a ticking time bomb. When the Taliban captured the biometric devices, concerns were raised that the devices could be used to identify former local collaborators. Human Rights First thus published a guide to evading the misuse of biometric data.

Thursday, December 29, 2022

Zelensky’s ‘Illusions’


29 Dec, 2022 07:51

Lavrov blasts Zelensky’s ‘illusions’

Kiev’s plan for settling the conflict with Moscow is a non-starter, the Russian foreign minister has said
Lavrov blasts Zelensky’s ‘illusions’

"Russia is not about to engage with Ukraine based on the ‘peace formula’ put forward by President Vladimir Zelensky, as it deems the terms unacceptable, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Thursday. He reiterated, however, that Moscow has not refused to engage in talks in general.

Speaking to RIA Novosti, the foreign minister stated that “obviously, Kiev is not ready for dialogue.”

“By putting forward all sorts of ideas and ‘peace formulas’, Zelensky cherishes the illusion that with the help of the West he will be able to achieve the withdrawal of our troops from the Russian territory of the Donbass, Crimea, Zaporozhye and Kherson Regions, the payment of reparations by Russia, [and] that it would ‘give itself up to international tribunals’, etc,” Lavrov said. He added that Moscow “will not talk to anyone under such conditions.”

However, the minister went on to say that Moscow has not refused to resolve the conflict through negotiations, pointing to the previous rounds of talks with Kiev.

 
Read more
Moscow responds to Kiev’s ‘peace summit’ idea

“Immediately after the start of the special military operation, Vladimir Zelensky proposed sitting down at the negotiating table. We did not turn it down and agreed to a meeting with his representatives,” Lavrov said, adding that the talks showed that finding a compromise is not an impossible task.

✓ The diplomatic process that began in February, however, “demonstrated Zelensky’s complete lack of independence in making important decisions,” Lavrov said. “Already in April, at the behest of the Anglo-Saxons, who were interested in continuing the hostilities, he swiftly wrapped up negotiations and sharply toughened his position.” 

✓ Earlier this month, Zelensky floated the idea of a UN-sponsored “Global Peace Summit,” to take place in February 2023, with a ten-point “peace formula.” The plan includes the withdrawal of Russian troops from all territories claimed by Ukraine and the restoration of the country’s “territorial integrity.” Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba stated, however, that before the talks can start, Moscow must face an “international court” and be prosecuted for supposed war crimes.

On Wednesday, Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov claimed that the plan ignores the reality on the ground. He was referring to the results of referendums in the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, which, along with Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions, overwhelmingly voted to join Russia this autumn. Crimea did the same in 2014 following the Maidan coup in Kiev." 

READ MORE

SAY WHAT?? Ukraine run by ‘f****d up people’ – US instructor



27 Dec, 2022 13:03

Ukraine run by ‘f****d up people’ – US instructor

A video shows the founder of Mozart Group, Andrew Milburn, admitting Kiev’s forces have committed “atrocities”
Ukraine run by ‘f****d up people’ – US instructor

Ukraine should not be placed on a pedestal in the West’s attempts to support the country in its conflict with Russia. That's according to Andrew Milburn, founder of the ‘Mozart Group’, which has been providing training for Kiev’s forces. 

The retired Marine commander shared his experience and conclusions from working in Ukraine during an appearance on the Team House podcast last month. Attention to the video, which had only amassed some 20,000 views since it was posted, was drawn by Grayzone editor Max Blumenthal on Monday.  

During the podcast, Milburn stated that Ukraine is a “corrupt, f****d-up society.” While he stressed that continued Western support for the country was important and justified by the need to uphold “global norms,” he suggested that the whole point was “not about Ukraine.” 

“I have a Ukrainian flag tied to my bag, but I’m not like ‘oh my God, Ukraine is so awesome,’ because I understand that there are plenty of f****d up people running Ukraine,” Milburn said, admitting that he’s really “not a big fan” of the country. 

He also stated that “a number of things” that Kiev’s forces do with Russian POWs violate the Hague convention on the laws of armed conflict, especially when it comes to filming interrogations of captured Russian soldiers and posting them online. 

Milburn noted that the trainers from Mozart Group don’t condone such acts and have always tried to distance themselves from any unit that showed them videos of killing Russian POWs. “We’ve been shown those videos plenty of times,” he said, adding that “there were plenty” of atrocities being committed by Ukrainian forces and “all kinds of atrocities to go around.”  

He did stress, however, that most of the groups his trainers have dealt with were “very professional” and did not resort to such acts. 

While Milburn’s Mozart Group claims charity status, it is considered to be among the largest private military companies currently working in Ukraine and has been providing military training to Ukrainian soldiers since the early days of the conflict. However, it has also been the source of several damning reports on the dark underbelly of Kiev’s armed forces.  

✓ Back in August, Milburn was quoted by CBS news in a since-deleted report that revealed how Western-supplied weapons were disappearing in Ukraine and popping up on the black market. Recently, he was also quoted by Newsweek in a report revealing that the Ukrainian military was seeing casualty rates of 70% or more, contrary to official Kiev’s claims.

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