20 December 2023

Ukraine's Scythe Attack Drone AQ-400 Launch (17,811 views) Dec 17, 2023 Runway Take-Off from Terminal Autonomy

  




The drone can carry a total payload of 94 pounds, and typically carries a 42 kilogram warhead similar to those used by Iranian Shahed 136 loitering munitions employed by Russia. 
On top of this, it's also capable of transmitting video to operators, as an optional add-on, allowing for specific targets to be pinpointed. 
  • However, this is only possible within radio line-of-sight between the drone and its operator, otherwise, the drones are autonomously flown by autopilot.
<em>Terminal Autonomy</em>
Terminal Autonomy
Scythe can achieve cruising speeds of some 144 kilometers per hour (around 89 miles per hour) and top speeds of 200 kilometers per hour (around 124 miles per hour). 
  • Scythe has a maximum endurance of six-and-a-half hours, while its maximum range is at least 750 kilometers (466 miles), with some reporting suggesting the figure is in fact somewhere in the region of 750-900 kilometers (between 466 and 559 miles).
  • Significantly, this puts large portions of western Russia, as well as all of occupied Crimea, within striking distance from well-within Ukrainian-controlled territory. 
  • The company has made no secret of the fact that the drones are capable of striking the Russian capital, having recently released footage of the systems taking off with the caption 'To Moscow.'

According to Terminal Autonomy, the system represents a "price point for cost per kilogram payload delivered to the target previously inconceivable over distances of 750km."

"Scythe is the culmination of… efforts to offer strategic capabilities at the very lowest prices," it notes. 
  • As per the company's older One Way Aerospace website, the system's starting cost is $25,999 USD
  • However, more recent figures suggest that the baseline configuration costs as little as $15,000 USD, with additional features potentially raising the figure to around the $30,000 mark. 
  • This is a similar cost range to the Iranian-designed Shahed-136 one-way attack munition.
<em>Terminal Autonomy</em>
Terminal Autonomy

As noted earlier, like its shorter-range UAVs, including the AQ-100 Bayonet drone and AQV-150 Scalpel first-person view suicide drone, the company intends for Scythe to be massed-produced on an increasingly large scale

  • The choice of materials used for its construction allows for the drone to be offered at cheaper price points and in greater numbers. 
  • The fuselage itself is made from milled sheets of plywood from Ukrainian furniture factories, which, Terminal Autonomy suggests, represents a more scalable alternative to 3-D plastic printing. 
  • It's been reported that technical training is not required to manufacture the drones, allowing them to be made at scale without skilled labor.
It was in response to Ukraine's need for large volumes of cheaply produced, disposable drones that spurred the founders of the company to action back in 2022
<em>Terminal Autonomy</em>
Terminal Autonomy

"Our mission was created after we saw a direct market-need to procure systems that are simple, affordable, and disposable from a commercial basis," Earl told Defense News earlier this year. "We thought to ourselves, the only way this concept was going to work was if we saw our products not necessarily as precious assets, but more so in the same way that cruise missiles are seen."

  • Long-range kamikaze drones have been used by both sides of the conflict in Ukraine. Ukraine first used drones that were adapted types bought off Alibaba as vengeance weapons just a matter of months after Russia's full-on invasion began. 
  • These weapons were critical for striking back at Russia inside its borders and were used repeatedly for long-range strikes into Crimea as well as Russia. 
  • As the war has continued on, Ukraine has developed multiple long-range Kamikaze drone types that were creeping their way towards Moscow until the Russian captial was within reach. 
  • Still, these strikes have been very limited in recent months, likely as Ukraine needs to focus more on degrading Russia's actual warfighting capabilities over symbolic attacks.

One of the "Alibaba drones" used to attack deep inside Russia and Crimea. <em>via social media</em>
One of the "Alibaba drones" used to attack deep inside Russia and Crimea. via social media
Even today, with advanced Western cruise missiles in its arsenal, Ukraine is limited to using those weapons against targets outside of Russia's internationally recognized borders. So Ukraine has to figure out ways to execute such strikes without them. 
  • This has resulted in a boom in long-range attack drone and missile development. Now, both Russia and Ukraine are doing everything possible to rapidly increased drone production of all types.
  • According to Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine's minister of strategic industries, more than 100 companies are now manufacturing tens of thousands of drones a month to keep up with demand. Scythe is just one of them.

But if Ukraine can produce thousands of Scythes a month, they could rain down on targets far behind the front lines. 

The kinds of volumes Scythe could offer, if Terminal Autonomy delivers on its production and cost goals, could allow them to be used in constant flock attacks. 

  • Doing so would overwhelm and deplete Russia's air defenses. 
  • Air defense sites themselves and airfields would be top targets, as well as more strategic and symbolic ones very far from the front lines.

So, Scythe could provide a model for the future of high-volume long-range kamikaze drone capabilities, where putting a warhead in the air on its way to a target, and hopefully impacting that target, at the very lowest possible cost becomes the only design driver.

As they say, 'quantity has a quality all its own,' and when it comes to drone warfare, that quality is rapidly becoming a necessity, not a feature.

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