The Energy Department's data arm is more favorable on renewables' long-term future than it was a year ago, but its central analysis might still be badly underestimating the tech's trajectory.
Driving the news: The Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook released yesterday shows power from renewables overtaking natural gas as the nation's largest electricity source in about 15 years.
Why it matters: It's a reversal of fortune from last year's version, which projected that in 2050 natural gas would still be the biggest power source with a 39% share and renewables at 31%.
“This shift has been strongly influenced by federal and state policies that help make renewables the fastest-growing source of electricity,” EIA administrator Linda Capuano said Wednesday, per Bloomberg.
The intrigue: One thing worth keeping in mind is that EIA's "reference" case assumes a static policy landscape going forward.
Predicting the future is hard! But it's safe to assume policy won't be static.
EIA also published alternative scenarios — a high-cost case and a low-cost case in which renewable costs in 2050 are 40% lower than the reference case.
In the low-cost case, renewables have a 50% share in 2050.
But, but, but: Renewables' growth has outpaced EIA projections for many years.
"I do think that the [EIA] numbers are moving in the right direction, but still too conservative," Joshua Rhodes, an analyst with the firm Vibrant Clean Energy, tells me.
He points to the recent burst of long-term state and utility clean power plans, and he's skeptical that coal will even have close to the 13% share by 2050 that EIA projects.
The latest edition of the Energy Department's "transportation fact of the week" series shows that much of the freight moved by truck isn't traveling that far.
Why it matters: As medium and heavy-duty electric trucks enter the market, which is slowlystarting to happen, there are many use cases that don't require massive range or far-flung charging networks.
What they're saying:"Electric trucks can meet the need of a lot of freight applications today and will be ready to meet the needs of even more applications as range grows in the coming years," Jason Mathers, the Environmental Defense Fund's director for vehicles and freight strategy, tells me.
One in three US households—nearly 100 million people—struggle with housing costs that jeopardize their financial security. The problem is acute for virtually all low-income families and for the 1 in 4 renters who spend 50% or more of their income on housing—and its effects ripple throughout our communities and economy.
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In 2019, Aspen EPIC recognized rising housing costs and instability as critical threats to the financial insecurity of American families and created a comprehensive research primer on the topic. Drawing on extensive the research literature, engagement with more than 100 experts, and analysis of federal survey data, we have prepared
“Strong Foundations:
Financial security starts with affordable, stable housing.”
Our research, which will be released in January, identified four critical underlying problems driving rising housing costs and instability:
There isn’t enough new housing to meeting growing demand
Many families can’t afford the housing options available to them
Historical and ongoing discrimination harms people of color
The policy environment disadvantages renters
The harmful effects of housing unaffordability and instability affect not just individuals and families, but also public institutions, education and healthcare systems, and private businesses. All sectors of American life would benefit from solving this crisis.
