International Monetary Fund >> World Economic Outlook April 2016 Slower Growth Revised Down

Speeches given by SF Fed Reserve Bank president John Williams and U.S. Fed Reserve Bank Chief Janet Yelled have both been featured here in posts on this blog. One seemed to play down global influences while the other was cautions in these "certainly uncertain" times.
Today this is published
World Economic Outlook (WEO)
Analytical Chapters

April 2016

Source: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/01/index.htm

 

Here in black-and-white from the Fed meeting minutes 03.31.2016 [above] 
Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-31/fed-minutes-u-s-services-masters-golf-week-ahead-april-2-9

Yours truly cannot get hung up by trying to decipher and understand what all this academic language is all about, except for some words like slowdown, decline, and debt crises.

What I need are infographics and visuals to cut through twisted narratives that simply state what is going on, like this image to the right from the IMF with real projected figures for advanced and emerging economies.

[You can click on it to enlarge]

 

 

 

 

... or this that shows slower growth everywhere.

The U.S. is the second grouping from the left

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mostly enthusiastic and upbeat mainstream media reporting on reports released by the government that turn out, as the infographic clearly shows that growth forecasts are revised down.

 

 

 

 

Contents

Chapter 2. Understanding the Slowdown in Capital Flows to Emerging Markets
Net capital flows to emerging market economies have slowed since 2010, affecting all regions. This chapter shows that both weaker inflows and stronger outflows have contributed to the slowdown and that much of the decline in inflows can be explained by the narrowing differential in growth prospects between emerging market and advanced economies. The chapter also highlights that the incidence of external debt crises in the ongoing episode has so far been much lower, although the slowdown in net capital inflows has been comparable in breadth and size to the major slowdowns of the 1980s and 1990s. Improved policy frameworks have contributed greatly to this difference. Crucially, more flexible exchange rate regimes have facilitated orderly currency depreciations that have mitigated the effects of the global capital flow cycle on many emerging market economies. Higher levels of foreign asset holdings by emerging market economies, in particular higher levels of foreign reserves, as well as lower shares of external liabilities denominated in foreign currency (that is, less of the so-called original sin) have also been instrumental.

• Full Text | Press Points

• Anatomy of the Slowdown in Net Capital Inflows
• Historical Comparisons: What Is Different This Time?
• What Is Driving the Recent Slowdown in Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies?
• Conclusions
• References

Annexes
2.1	Sample of Emerging Market Economies
2.2	Data
2.3	Methodology
Boxes
2.1	Capital Flows to Low-Income Developing Countries
2.2	U.S. Monetary Policy and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets
Figures
Chart	Data	2.1	Net Capital Inflows to Emerging Market Economies and Number of Debt Crises, 1980–2015:Q3
Chart	Data	2.2	Net Capital Inflows to Emerging Market Economies, 2000–15:Q3
Chart	Data	2.3	Capital Inflows and Outflows for Emerging Market Economies 2000–15:Q3
Chart	Data	2.4	Capital Inflows and Outflows for Emerging Market Economies by Asset Type: 2000–15:Q3
Chart	Data	2.5	Net Capital Inflows by Region, 2000–15:Q3
Chart	Data	2.6	Net Reserve Assets of Emerging Market Economies, 2000–15:Q3
Chart	Data	2.7	Exchange Rates of Emerging Market Economies, 2010–15:Q3
Chart	Data	2.8	Net Capital Inflow Slowdown and Exchange Rate Changes, 2010–15:Q3
Chart	Data	2.9	Cost of Financing, Sovereign Spreads, and Capital Flows in Emerging Market Economies
Chart	Data	2.10	Three Major Net Capital Inflow Slowdown Episodes
Chart	Data	2.11	External Balance Sheets of Emerging Market Economies, 1980–2014
Chart	Data	2.12	Gross Capital Inflows and Outflows of Emerging Market Economies, 1980–2014
Chart	Data	2.13	Net External Debt Liabilities of Emerging Market Economies, 1980–2014
Chart	Data	2.14	Outstanding Debt of Emerging Market Economies Denominated in Domestic Currency, 1995–2015
Chart	Data	2.15	Net Capital Outflows and the Current Account during the 2010–15 Slowdown
Chart	Data	2.16	Nominal Effective Exchange Rate Adjustment in 1995–2000 and 2010–15:Q3
Chart	Data	2.17	Role of Global Factors in the Recent Slowdown
Chart	Data	2.18	Estimated Time Fixed Effects and Average Gross Capital Inflows to Emerging Market Economies
Chart	Data	2.19	Share of Variation in Gross Capital Inflows Explained by Global Factors
Chart	Data	2.20	2010–15 Gross Capital Inflow Slowdown and Country-Specific Characteristics
Chart	Data	2.21	Differences in the Contribution of Global Factors between More and Less Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes
Chart	Data	2.1.1	Net Capital Inflows to Low-Income Developing Countries, 2000–14
Chart	Data	2.1.2	Capital Inflows and Outflows of Low-Income Developing Countries, 2000–14
Chart	Data	2.1.3	Capital Inflows to Low-Income Developing Countries by Asset Type and Net Capital Inflows by Region, 2000–14
Chart	Data	2.1.4	Net Reserve Assets and Current Account Balance, 2000–14
Chart	Data	2.1.5	Net Capital Inflows to Low-Income Developing Countries, 2012–15, Restricted Sample
Chart	Data	2.1.6	Exchange Rates of Low-Income Developing Countries, 2009–15:Q3
Chart	Data	2.2.1	Correlation between Emerging Market Fund Flows and Emerging Market Total Portfolio Inflows
Tables
2.1	Foreign Reserves and the Current Account in Balance of Payments Adjustments
2.2	Large Depreciations, Banking Sector Stress, and External Crises during Slowdown Episodes
2.2.1	Short-Term Determinants of Emerging Market Fund Flows
Annex 2.1.1	Countries in the Chapter’s Emerging Market Economies Sample
Annex 2.1.2	External Crisis Episodes, 1980–2015
Annex 2.1.3	Large Depreciation Episodes, 1995–2000
Annex 2.1.4	Large Depreciation Episodes, 2010–15
Annex 2.3.1	Role of Global Factors in Explaining Gross Capital Inflows
Annex 2.3.2	Role of Global Factors in Explaining Gross Capital Outflows
Annex 2.3.3	Role of Country Characteristics in Explaining Gross Capital Inflows
Annex 2.3.4	Role of Country Characteristics in Explaining Gross Capital Outflows
Annex 2.3.5	Role of Interaction Terms in Explaining Gross Capital Inflows
Annex 2.3.6	Role of Country Characteristics and Global Factors in Explaining Gross Capital Inflows

Chapter 3. Time for a Supply-Side Boost? Macroeconomic Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Economies
This chapter finds that product and labor market reforms raise output and employment in the medium term, but complementary macroeconomic policies are needed to maximize their short-term payoff given the current economic slack in most advanced economies. Product market reforms deliver gains in the short term, while the impact of labor market reforms varies across types of reforms and depends on overall economic conditions. Reductions in labor tax wedges and increases in public spending on active labor market policies have larger effects during periods of slack, in part because they usually entail some degree of fiscal stimulus. In contrast, reforms to employment protection arrangements and unemployment benefit systems have positive effects in good times, but can become contractionary in periods of slack. These results suggest the need for carefully prioritizing and sequencing reforms.

Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, Analytical Chapters, April 2016                        
April 6, 2016
Watch the 25;17 video >> http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=4834175211001