07 February 2019

19 Years-of-Drought . . . Desperately Scrambling Over Drought Contingency Plans?

Much of conservative Arizona is in denial about what the potential drying of the West may mean, if they recognize it at all.

An Info-Graphic: Half-Full or Half-Empty?
Denials aside, and meeting last-minute deadlines not met by the Arizona State House, let's step back from the political-wranglings in Phoenix of the most precious commodity here in the desert: Water.
There's a new  report published today from the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies:Part IV of Crisis On The Colorado: ". . . The fate of the Hohokam holds lessons these days for Arizona, as the most severe drought since their time has gripped the region. But while the Hohokam succumbed to the mega-drought, the city of Phoenix and its neighbors are desperately scrambling to avoid a similar fate — no easy task in a desert that gets less than 8 inches of rain a year. . . " 
The reports cites a two-decade drought earlier in the history of the Salt River Valley:
"The Hohokam were an ancient people who lived in the arid Southwest, their empire now mostly buried beneath the sprawl of some 4.5 million people who inhabit modern-day Phoenix, Arizona and its suburbs. Hohokam civilization was characterized by farm fields irrigated by the Salt and Gila rivers with a sophisticated system of carefully calibrated canals, the only prehistoric culture in North America with so advanced a farming system.
Then in 1276, tree ring data shows, a withering drought descended on the Southwest, lasting more than two decades. It is believed to be a primary cause of the collapse of Hohokam society. . . "
Supplying enough water to sustain the Suburban Sprawl of a Metro Region this size in the desert has long been controversial.
. . . as Phoenix and its neighbors continue their unrelenting sprawl — Arizona’s population has more than tripled in the past 50 years, from 1.8 million in 1970 to 7.2 million today — the state has often been regarded as the poster child for unsustainable development. Now that Colorado River water appears to be drying up, critics are voicing their “I told you so’s.”
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Featured in the report is Kathryn Sorensen, director of Phoenix Water Services. She’s proud of the work she has done since she was appointed in 2013 — before that she served four years as head of Mesa, Arizona’s water department.
On her desk sits a crystal ball, a joke gift that she says she wishes was real.
". . .in late December, the Phoenix City Council rejected a water rate increase to pay for the infrastructure expansion. The Salt and Gila rivers also may someday be severely impacted by climate change. “They could be affected by a mega-drought,” said Andrew Ross, a sociology professor at New York University and author of Bird on Fire: Lessons from the World’s Least Sustainable City.
 “They are in the bullseye of global warming, too.”
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Much of conservative Arizona is in denial about what the potential drying of the West may mean, if they recognize it at all. “We’re just starting to acknowledge the volatile water reality,” said Kevin Moran, senior director of western water for the Environmental Defense Fund.
 “We’re just starting to ask the adaptation questions.”
Ross, of New York University, argues that the biggest problem for Arizona is not climate change, but the denial of it, which keeps real solutions — such as reining in unsustainable growth or the widespread deployment of solar energy in this sun-drenched region — from being considered.
“How you meet those challenges and how you anticipate and overcome them is not a techno-fix problem,” . . . It’s a question of social and political will.”
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