01 July 2020

Q3 2020: GDP contraction for 2020 in the 8% to 12% range

Hold that headline and take a pause > Inhale
and then exhale - there is more,
". . . Moreover, the recovery of lost output would not be completed in 2021. And the uncertainty surrounding these predictions would notably increase, with the balance of risk tilted to the downside.
SOURCE: Bloomberg Economics/Opinion
Sunny Third-Quarter Economic Outlook Turns Cloudier
Confidence is waning in economic improvement as the Covid-19 situation worsens in several states.
By     
Such a diminished outlook would worsen the already-concerning inequality trifecta of income, wealth and opportunity at a time of greater recognition and heightened sensitivity to long-standing social injustices.
  • It would also undermine the type of synchronized global recovery in which external demand reinforces domestic economic improvements.
  • It would increase the likelihood of more protectionism and faster deglobalization.
  • And it would risk pulling down longer-term economic growth and prosperity.
The answer is not to roll back health measures aimed at regaining control of what is a worrisome acceleration of infections. Rather, it is to ensure changes in behavior and policy that allow for healthier and sustainable economic reopenings during this tricky period of living with Covid-19. . . "
THERE IS MORE
_________________________________________________________________________________
BLOOMBERG EDITOR'S NOTE: This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
To contact the author of this story:
Mohamed A. El-Erian at melerian@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Daniel Niemi at
dniemi1@bloomberg.net 
at