Q3 2020: GDP contraction for 2020 in the 8% to 12% range

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". . . Moreover, the recovery of lost output would not be completed in 2021. And the uncertainty surrounding these predictions would notably increase, with the balance of risk tilted to the downside.
SOURCE: Bloomberg Economics/Opinion
Sunny Third-Quarter Economic Outlook Turns Cloudier

Confidence is waning in economic improvement as the Covid-19 situation worsens in several states.

By Mohamed A. El-Erian    

‎June‎ ‎30‎, ‎2020‎ ‎2‎:‎24‎ ‎PM

Such a diminished outlook would worsen the already-concerning inequality trifecta of income, wealth and opportunity at a time of greater recognition and heightened sensitivity to long-standing social injustices.

• It would also undermine the type of synchronized global recovery in which external demand reinforces domestic economic improvements.
• It would increase the likelihood of more protectionism and faster deglobalization.
• And it would risk pulling down longer-term economic growth and prosperity.

The answer is not to roll back health measures aimed at regaining control of what is a worrisome acceleration of infections. Rather, it is to ensure changes in behavior and policy that allow for healthier and sustainable economic reopenings during this tricky period of living with Covid-19. . . "
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BLOOMBERG EDITOR'S NOTE: This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author of this story:
Mohamed A. El-Erian at melerian@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:

Daniel Niemi at

dniemi1@bloomberg.net