Manchin and Sinema Have Every Reason to Sabotage Dems on the Debt Ceiling
"The basic dynamics of the rapidly approaching debt-limit crisis in Washington are pretty clear: It’s a game of chicken between House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (who could lose his gavel to a right-wing revolt if he’s not fanatical enough about demanding big spending-cut concessions) and Democrats led by President Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. But there are some vulnerabilities on both sides. Wall Street may come down on Republicans like a ton of bricks to force them to back down lest they trigger a debt default and a market meltdown. And on the Democratic side, there is the familiar soft underbelly of the donkey represented by Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema in the Senate.
There is zero doubt that these two “centrist” troublemakers are already planning to position themselves between the two parties to milk the crisis for all it’s worth, as Politico reports:
In typical Manchin form, the West Virginian centrist is already chiding Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer for referring to the House GOP’s debt ceiling bill and its massive government spending cuts as “dead on arrival.” …
Sinema warned in a statement for this story that “playing chicken with the full faith and credit of the United States is irresponsible” given the impacts a debt default could have on her constituents.
“Both sides need to come together, put down the partisan talking points, and discuss realistic solutions to prevent default,” she said.
Neither senator, in other words, is within a mile of the Democratic party-line position that the debt limit should never, ever in a thousand years again be the subject of hostage-taking negotiations.
- Manchin and Sinema look much more likely to put themselves right in the middle of the deal-making with eyes out on goodies they can secure for their states and their favored constituencies.
- For Manchin, that’s the energy-producing sector;
- for Sinema, her very close friends in the hedge-fund biz.
But it’s important to understand that this particular situation isn’t just a second stanza of the 2021–22 Build Back Better saga, in which Manchin and Sinema played so frustrating and central a role. The political standing of both of these lawmakers has significantly deteriorated since then.
- Manchin has become extremely unpopular in West Virginia, and his 2024 nightmare opponent, Governor Jim Justice, has just announced his Senate candidacy.
- Meanwhile, Sinema has formally left the Democratic Party, and a second term for her will depend on a very risky independent candidacy that at present doesn’t look very promising.
- It’s in the interest of both of these pols to magnify their roles in brokering a debt-limit deal between the two parties, and if that means letting the country get to the brink of economic catastrophe, that’s better yet.
If Manchin and Sinema stick together, they can certainly create a choke point on the clean debt-limit extension Biden and Schumer favor and make it very difficult to muster the 60 Senate votes ultimately needed to get a final bill through the upper chamber. Indeed, they may be able to generate a bipartisan “gang” in the Senate that controls the outcome, giving McCarthy just enough destructive concessions to enable him to survive the crisis with his loose grip on the gavel intact.
It’s actually unclear whether Democrats have anything that would convince her to display loyalty to the party she has already abandoned. And Manchin, who is reportedly considering a third-party 2024 presidential run, is the ultimate wild card, though none of his options are likely to involve snuggling up to a Democratic Party and president who are even more unpopular than Manchin himself in West Virginia.
There’s nothing much more troubling than a partisan standoff over absolutely must-pass legislation with a couple of desperate and self-interested pols positioned to make or unmake deals as the country slides toward disaster. But make no mistake, Manchin and Sinema are going to exploit this situation to the hilt."
As is her style, Sinema is less likely to discuss the political implications of legislation or her thinking about running again: “I’m not gonna tell you.” But when asked about liberal Rep. Ruben Gallego’s (D-Ariz.) support for the debt deal as he runs to oust her from her seat, Sinema had a deadpan response.
“Ruben has voted for all of my bills in the last couple of years,” Sinema said. “Which is good. They’re good bills.”
Sinema and Manchin’s covert debt deal operation
Last term, the two centrist senators publicly shaped nearly every piece of major legislation. They revived the act on the debt limit — but this time, they stayed behind the scenes. . .
The two centrist senators barely entered the public debt narrative other than pressing for negotiations. Yet each played an integral role in jump-starting discussions and assembling the particulars of the deal, particularly the legislation’s work requirement, spending and energy provisions.
Sinema leaned on years of relationships with McCarthy and lead negotiators Reps. Garret Graves (R-La.) and Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) while also consulting closely with OMB Director Shalanda Young and White House counselor Steve Ricchetti, who led the White House strategy alongside Legislative Director Louisa Terrell. She spent Thursday racing around the Capitol, aiding Senate leaders as they sought an agreement to speed votes up, spending literally hours helping craft joint statements and locking in amendment votes.
In fact, it was sort of her idea...
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