Elections Don’t Usually Drive Markets. Just Wait

 A series of consequential elections around the world, including one in the U.S., could affect investors for years to come.

Barron's

4 days ago

Elections Don't Usually Drive Markets. This Year Is Different. - Barron's

Elections Don’t Usually Drive Markets. Just Wait

Updated February 16, 2024 / Original February 15, 2024

This Year. ‘There Are Enormous Geopolitical Implications.’

By Reshma Kapadia

Investors typically ignore elections, but this isn’t a normal year. 

Nearly 60% of the world’s population heads to the polls as two wars rage, populist candidates are on the march, and higher interest rates make running hefty budget deficits more problematic for countries near and far.Investors typically ignore elections, but this isn’t a normal year. Nearly 60% of the world’s population heads to the polls as two wars rage, populist candidates are on the march, and higher interest rates make running hefty budget deficits more problematic for countries near and far.

The electoral outcomes this year will shape the global economy in ways that matter to markets, particularly if protectionism stifles global trade and countries have to pick sides as the U.S.-China rivalry intensifies.
More than 75 countries will hold elections. 

The year is bookended by two key ones. 

• Taiwan kicked off 2024 by delivering an unprecedented third term for the incumbent party and electing Lai Ching-te, who has vowed to safeguard the country’s independence from China, as president. 
• And the U.S. general election in November probably will be the most consequential anywhere, given sharp policy differences between the probable candidates, current President Joe Biden and his predecessor, Donald Trump.

India heads to the polls in late spring, 

• South Africa in May, and 
• Mexico on June 2. 
• European parliamentary elections will be in June, and 
• a United Kingdom election is likely to be called by yearend.