17 February 2024

Indispensable new data from the @kielinstitute .

How powerful the methods of economic history can be in illuminating contemporary policy issues

Indispensable new data from the .
Getting to know has been one of the highlights of my trip to the .
He and are showing just how powerful the methods of economic history can be in illuminating contemporary policy issues.




The picture changes with military aid allocations in % of donor GDP. Scandinavian countries again stand out, but also the Baltics. Germany with its large GDP now ranks much lower, comparable to Czechia, Slovakia, POL, NL or UK. Caveat: FRA, IT, POL not fully transparent. 2/8
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The new allocation data allows us to visualize how US military aid has run out. The bars show new "commitments" through the various acts in US Congress. The President/Pentagon then gradually draws down ("allocates"), military packages to be sent to Ukraine 👇3/8
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The new data also reveal that Europe has always been ahead of US in total aid allocation, even in 2022 (some of my old Tweets did not age well - back then we just couldn't track allocations, no transparency). We now have a much better picture on aid actually arriving to UKR 👇4/8
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Important: there is a large gap between commitments and allocations, especially for Europe. We should be careful when using commitments data - they include promised future aid. This figure shows that the pace of allocated EU aid has actually slowed since late 2023 👇5/8
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In our new research note (released later today, check our website), we also discuss data quality in depth. We discuss our sources (higher reliability than 2022), our new weapon transparency index, and benchmarking checks (incl. comparison with a French parliamentary report) 6/8
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