25 February 2024

Three scenarios Ukraine might be facing in 2024 | DW Analysis

  


Chatham House International Think Tank

". . .A simmering war, with or without a ceasefire may seem to many to be the best option, but it crystalizes Russian gains and would allow it to rearm, without the certainty that the West would stay the course and match it.  
It would also waste the unique opportunity being created by Ukraine to achieve a European security paradigm where borders and sovereignty are respected.
  • But the truth is that Russia is still, after two years of full-scale war, a far more committed player than the West. 
  • This fact should lead to an operational policy conclusion: that this war must not be long and must be won by Ukraine

A long war works against Ukraine – and the West’s own security

Russia currently has a 5:1 firepower advantage, as its shell production and acquisition has ramped up while Western supply has struggled. . .
Whatever the future question marks over Western support, discussions held at Chatham House last week indicated that alternative scenarios to a long war would all result in a situation requiring increased defense spending by the West and consistent, committed support for Ukraine.
. . .Those governments now seem to be waking up to the threat of a Russian victory, but too late to alter the situation this year.
How much U.S. spending is powering Ukraine's defense - The Washington Post

But Russia also possesses a unique resilience, also witnessed over hundreds of years. In its contemporary form, Russia is quite able to mobilize society for a drawn-out war and operate while under siege by sanctions (especially given all the loopholes in their implementation).
Some of the population at large may not be enthusiastic about the war – and even less so about being called up – but there is little doubt they would prefer to win it now that they’re in it.
  • So Ukraine will also now try to cut deeper: strikes inside Russia at airports and oil refineries are intended to have a psychological impact and lead to reduced exports.
...And while unity among Russia-watchers will forever remain elusive, most concluded that a clear Ukrainian victory was the only possible outcome that would reduce, rather than increase, the wider Russian threat to Europe.

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