Chatham House International Think Tank
". . .A simmering war, with or without a ceasefire may seem to many to be the best option, but it crystalizes Russian gains and would allow it to rearm, without the certainty that the West would stay the course and match it.
It would also waste the unique opportunity being created by Ukraine to achieve a European security paradigm where borders and sovereignty are respected.
It would also waste the unique opportunity being created by Ukraine to achieve a European security paradigm where borders and sovereignty are respected.
- But the truth is that Russia is still, after two years of full-scale war, a far more committed player than the West.
- This fact should lead to an operational policy conclusion: that this war must not be long and must be won by Ukraine.
A long war works against Ukraine – and the West’s own security
Whatever the future question marks over Western support, discussions held at Chatham House last week indicated that alternative scenarios to a long war would all result in a situation requiring increased defense spending by the West and consistent, committed support for Ukraine.
. . .Those governments now seem to be waking up to the threat of a Russian victory, but too late to alter the situation this year.
. . .Those governments now seem to be waking up to the threat of a Russian victory, but too late to alter the situation this year.
- Kyiv is nonetheless rethinking its own war strategy, with a new emphasis on improved technology and updated command and control.
- It may be bitter at the slow speed of delivery and lack of resolve of its partners, but this has not yet translated into defeatism.
But Russia also possesses a unique resilience, also witnessed over hundreds of years. In its contemporary form, Russia is quite able to mobilize society for a drawn-out war and operate while under siege by sanctions (especially given all the loopholes in their implementation).
- Defense spending is over 10 per cent of GDP and 40 per cent of its budget, in contrast to the West – and it can increase that figure faster than its enemies.
- So Ukraine will also now try to cut deeper: strikes inside Russia at airports and oil refineries are intended to have a psychological impact and lead to reduced exports.
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