Ukraine needs the funds to help cover an expected $43 billion budget deficit in 2024 to keep its economy running and help reform and rebuild, including through guarantees to cover investors’ risks.
The government expects a budget deficit of about $43 billion in 2024 and plans to cover it with domestic borrowing and financial aid from its Western partners.
- Finance ministry officials have previously said they expect to receive $41 billion in international aid next year.
- But the government and analysts are now worried by signs of uncertainty over the provision of that financing. Some analysts predict Western aid is likely to start diminishing next year.
Debt and domestic sources of money
Still living on handouts, the government continues to cast around for fresh sources of revenue.
The main income in 2024 will be the expected profit of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), which is to be directed to the state budget in 2024, and may be significantly higher than currently planned, says KSE.
Still living on handouts, the government continues to cast around for fresh sources of revenue.
The main income in 2024 will be the expected profit of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), which is to be directed to the state budget in 2024, and may be significantly higher than currently planned, says KSE.
- According to the plan, the National Bank is expected to transfer at least UAH17.7bn to the state budget as a portion of its profit for distribution.
- This amount is 75.1% less than what was planned for 2023.
- However, the final amount of the National Bank's transfer to the state budget will be known in the spring of 2024 after an audit.
Will Western aid plug Ukraine's gaping budget deficit in 2024?
EUROPE'S UKRAINE FACILITY
This summer, the European Union announced a 50 billion euro multi-year support package named the Ukraine Facility that would be delivered through 2027.
Kyiv officials have said they hope to receive 18 billion euros of budgetary support from the facility in 2024, financing that would be crucial for covering the budget gap next year.
But there is still no agreement on granting the aid inside the bloc. Several members have criticised the idea of the package.
IMF PROGRAMME, IFI SUPPORT
Ukraine's cooperation with the International Monetary Fund is important for its macroeconomic and financial stability. This year the IMF approved a new 48-month lending program worth some $15.6 billion.
Ukraine received $3.6 billion this year and expects another $900 million in December. In 2024 the government hopes to receive $5.4 billion but each tranche is linked to a series of reform targets and economic indicators.
Ukraine also expects about $1.5 billion from other international financial institutions, including the World Bank, next year.
OTHER PACKAGES
Ukraine has agreed financial support packages from Britain and Japan for 2024. It is also in talks with the governments of Canada, Norway, South Korea and others to secure other funds.
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How does a country repay its external debts, and should the default be feared?
External Debt in Ukraine increased to 150488 USD Million in the third quarter of 2023 from 148408 USD Million in the second quarter of 2023.
- External Debt in Ukraine averaged 104330.14 USD Million from 2003 until 2023, reaching an all time high of 150488.00 USD Million in the third quarter of 2023 and a record low of 23811.00 USD Million in the fourth quarter of 2003.
- Source: National Bank of Ukraine
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