Sunday, February 11, 2024

Zelenskiy Replaces More Generals as Military Purge Expands

 

  • A bid to revive momentum in war soon to start third year
Ukraine War: Why is Zelenskiy Shaking Up His Officer Ranks? - Bloomberg

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“Zelensky is looking for some way to affect the way the war is going, and the best thing you can do at this point is replace Zaluzhny,” said David Silbey, a professor at Cornell University who studies defense policy.

“I think it’s more of a sign of desperation,” he added, summing up the thinking as: “We don’t actually have anything we can do that will make a substantial difference, but we’re going to do something anyway.”

Ukraine looks for new start after Zelensky fires top general

Ukraine looks for new start after Zelensky fires top general

". . .While there was speculation that Zaluzhny posed a political threat to Zelensky because of his immense popularity, the firing was likely more about dueling narratives from the two leaders, said Jean-Marc Rickli, head of global and emerging risks at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy.

“On the one hand, you have the narrative from Zelensky, which is full of hopes and that we’re doing the job, in order to secure Western support,” he said. “And on the other hand, you have the more realistic narrative that it’s not going according to plans, and that right now Ukraine is suffering and unless a technological breakthrough occurs, the situation of Ukraine won’t change anytime soon. You had a conflict of two narratives that sent two conflicting messages to Western allies.”
When he announced the changing of the guard on Thursday, Zelensky said it was “not about politics.” He thanked Zaluzhny for his time and said he offered him another position, but he stressed it was time for new leadership and that the “generalship must be reset.”
. . .And Ukraine is running low on ammunition and resources, a source of significant concern in Kyiv because the U.S. continues to debate whether to send Ukrainian troops new money. Zelensky has traveled twice to Washington since September to meet with congressional leaders.
  • Zelensky noted Ukraine’s difficulties with the war in his Thursday speech, warning that the Ukrainian people were “speaking of victory less often.”
  • “We failed to achieve the goals of our state on land,” Zelensky said of the failed 2023 counteroffensive. 
  • We have to be honest, the feeling of stagnation … has affected the public mood.”
The Ukrainian president also pushed for a “realistic, detailed” plan of action for 2024, tasking Syrsky, the new top armed forces commander, with formulating a strategy.
Syrsky quickly announced “new tasks,” including 
  • speeding up weapons deliveries, 
  • rotating units and 
  • investing more heavily in strategies like drones and electronic warfare.
>>. . .Alp Sevimlisoy, a millennium fellow at the Atlantic Council, said appointing a new commander could also lead to a more streamlined dialogue with the U.S., which reportedly had small disputes with Ukraine during the 2023 counteroffensive about where to best punch at Russian lines.
  • Sevimlisoy said there should be more “direct synchronicity with the United States” and he assessed Ukraine was evolving into a more “capable wartime state,” which would naturally involve domestic and political leadership changes.

“The Ukrainian Armed Forces has gone from being just a defensive army fighting against Russia, to a wider army that is defending the tenants of [the West] because the campaign … is not just a campaign to stop Russia,” he said. “It is a wider conflict, where we are preserving the integrity of NATO.”

>> . . .Edward Arnold, a European research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, warned that if Syrsky oversees a retreat, that could backfire, a real risk as Russia is pressing to take the town of Avdiivka in the eastern Donetsk region. 
  • Syrsky is “known as the defender of Kyiv and also [for] the Kharkiv counteroffensive and ,”then suddenly he will be responsible for a withdrawal that people don’t want to make,” Arnold said. 

“It might also backfire on Zelensky because it’ll be Zelensky who changed things and already there’s been an operational loss.”

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Outmanned and outgunned: Ukraine's new army chief faces big challenges in  taking the fight to Russia | CNN


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