Zelenskiy’s Kursk incursion gamble starts to unravel as a barrage of criticism mounts
The big gamble Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy took when he ordered the Kursk incursion on August 4 is starting to unravel.
“President Zelenskiy has come under a barrage of criticism from soldiers, lawmakers and military analysts in recent days over the rapid advances made by the Russian army in eastern Ukraine since Kyiv launched its bold incursion into Russia’s Kursk region,” reported Christopher Miller of the Financial Times on August 30.
As Russia continues its push in Donbas, undeterred by Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian military leaders are under intense pressure to stabilise the situation. And that is not going well.
Military commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said this week that Russia has brought up 30,000 men to contain the Kursk incursion, but admitted that Russia had not drawn them from the Donbas frontline, where Russia’s forces progress is accelerating, according to reports by the military bloggers (milbloggers) on both sides.
“Russia has brought up 30,000 troops to Kursk that have not come [to] Donbas, but [have been] scratched together from other units elsewhere as well as what reserves Russia has left,” Syrskyi noted.
- The Russian forces in Kursk are facing off with an estimated 7,000-20,000 crack Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) troops, according to various sources.
- However, as reported by bne IntelliNews Russia seems to be in no rush to take the region back, while it concentrates all its efforts on making a strategically important breakthrough in the Donbas.
If the plan was to draw off forces from the Donbas to relieve the pressure on the AFU in Donbas that plan has failed.
Mounting reports suggest that the key town of Pokrovsk is about to fall into Russian hands.
The irony is that instead of weakening Russia’s forces in Donbas, it is becoming increasingly clear that it is Ukraine that has weakened its force on the main battleline in the Donbas and the AFU forces in the line of fire are increasingly unhappy about it.
“A breach in the frontline in the strategic Donetsk region has triggered a backlash against the political and military leadership in Kyiv, with critics arguing Ukraine’s positions were weakened by the redeployment of experienced troops to the Kursk operation,” Miller added.
Pokrovsk is a critical rail and road junction in Donetsk. Russian forces have advanced to within 8km of Pokrovsk, reports Euromaidan Press, capturing nearby towns and forcing undermanned Ukrainian units to retreat from their defensive positions. The potential fall of Pokrovsk could have devastating consequences for Ukraine’s military logistics in the region.
- As Russian forces close in on Pokrovsk, concerns are growing about Ukraine’s ability to maintain its defense against the AFR’s onslaught.
“There is complete chaos,” Pohorilyi said in a post earlier this week, highlighting the fall of key towns on the approach to Pokrovsk like Novohrodivka are a looming threat to Pokrovsk. “There is very bad now.”
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- Satellite imagery of seized Ukrainian positions shows signs of heavy artillery shelling, which indicates that Ukrainian troops in the Pokrovsk area retreated multiple times due to insufficient forces and resources for an organized defence.
“The potential loss of Pokrovsk poses a serious operational threat to the logistics of the entire region, disrupting supply lines from Vuhledar in the south to Horlivka in the north,” Euromaidan Press reports.
- The strategic importance of Pokrovsk is further compounded by its location near key road junctures, making it a crucial distribution hub for Ukrainian forces.
- The road linking Pokrovsk to Kostyantynivka, long targeted by Russian forces, is vital for the resupply of troops in the Bakhmut-Horlivka sector that supports the defence of the frontline.
- Losing this connection could severely impair Ukraine’s ability to defend the region.
Russia regained the initiative after the fall of Avdiivka on February 17 and solidified it during a devastating six months hiatus in Western support after the US ran out of money for Ukraine only to finally approve a new $61bn aid package on April 20.
- However, since then fresh supplies have been only dribbling into Ukraine at a reduced pace, Zelenskiy complained this week. Despite the fresh international support approved in recent months, the West has continued its policy of supplying Ukraine with “some, but not enough” aid that is designed to prevent Ukraine from not losing the war, but not supplying it with enough to win.
After taking Avdiivka on February 17, Russia has consolidated its hold on the town and the lack of Ukrainian fortifications behind Avdiivka has left Ukrainian defences vulnerable, say experts. The rapid pace of Russian advancement since July has allowed them to bypass many of Ukraine’s hastily constructed defensive lines, belatedly thrown up after the frontline began to crumble this spring.
While Ukrainian forces continue to hold their positions, the shortage of manpower and resources is becoming increasingly apparent. As detailed by bne IntelliNews,
- Ukraine is suffering from growing shortages of men, money and materiel, and while a recruitment drive launched following a new mobilisation law passed in March has raised more troops, Kyiv is still struggling to equip and train them according to a damning AP interview, where a senior Ukrainian officer described the poor state of readiness and morale amongst the fresh recruits.
As the conflict intensifies, the fate of Pokrovsk and the broader Donbas region hangs in the balance. The coming weeks will be critical as Ukraine navigates the dual challenges of repelling Russian advances while maintaining its strategic foothold in eastern Ukraine.
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