What A Day: The Straits of Vermouth - by Matt Berg
THE STRUGGLE ISRAEL
Time is running out in Donald Trump’s two-week ceasefire with Iran, as diplomats scramble to avoid further attacks. Lives — and the global economy — are on the line.
Plenty of things have made President Donald Trump’s ceasefire with Iran look precarious. Among the big ones: Israel’s refusal to stop bombing Lebanon as it targets Hezbollah militants. But that obstacle at least temporarily disappeared today, in a cautiously hopeful sign of diplomatic progress with Iran.
A ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon came together after Trump spoke with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump wrote on social media this morning. The 10-day ceasefire began at 5 p.m. Eastern today.
The temporary deal counts as a small, but significant, diplomatic win — if it holds. Yet the pause in fighting also shows just how fraught the next stage of talks aimed at ending the war with Iran could be. The players, and the motives, in this dynamic remain incredibly complex.
The stakes of securing peace with Iran are getting higher every day.
The U.S. will resume bombing Iran if the country doesn’t “choose wisely” in peace talks, War Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters this morning.
Trump, however, was full of sunny optimism about prospects for a deal; he suggested that the next round of in-person talks could happen this weekend. But American and Iranian negotiators are reportedly scaling back the ambitions of a comprehensive peace agreement, instead seeking a “temporary memorandum” to prevent future fights, Reuters writes. Some gulf and European leaders think a serious deal could take six months, Bloomberg reported.
The effects of the war on the global economy could become more severe soon. Europe only has about six weeks left of jet fuel because of oil shortages caused by the war in Iran, International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol told the Associated Press. “In the past there was a group called ‘Dire Straits.’ It’s a dire strait now,” he said. “It is going to have major implications for the global economy. And the longer it goes, the worse it will be for the economic growth and inflation around the world.”
Trump wants to declare victory. But the road to lasting peace could be long and complicated.
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