Upcoming data ‘may be the straw that breaks investors’ backs’. . . "A slice of the Treasury yield curve that usually signals a downturn inverted this week by the most since 2007, pushing beyond levels seen in March. That followed recent reports showing April declines for U.S. retail sales, factory output, business-equipment orders and home purchases, while a manufacturing gauge dropped in May to a nine-year low. . .
Yield Curve’s Turn Puts Microscope on Next U.S. Economic Reports
Economic data in coming days will go a long way to show whether market concern of an imminent U.S. recession is justified. . . It all puts even more weight than usual on the next round of economic reports, starting with Thursday’s revised reading of first-quarter growth and culminating with the May jobs report on June 7. Investors have also been fretting about the U.S.-China trade war after President Donald Trump raised tariffs this month and threatened more, with no end in sight for negotiations . . .
. . . companies have curbed investment or put it on hold while global growth slows and the U.S.-China tariff war clouds the outlook. That’s been compounded by the lack of trade pacts yet with Japan and the European Union, and the fact that the new U.S. agreement with Canada and Mexico remains in limbo.
The spread has inverted before each of the last three recessions, with Federal Reserve research highlighting its significance.
. . . Data Friday may show consumer spending and inflation were subdued in April, while surveys of factories and service providers will give a sense of the economy ahead of the all-important payroll and wage figures.
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